NFL Week 5 Betting - Where Are The Sharps Looking?

Jason Lake

Monday, October 3, 2016 6:51 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 3, 2016 6:51 PM UTC

After suffering back-to-back losses late in the fourth quarter, the San Diego Chargers are a fashionable NFL pick for this Sunday's matchup with the Oakland Raiders.


No wonder Mike McCoy is angry. His San Diego Chargers are 1-3, but they could easily be 3-1; the Chargers lost each of their last two games in the last two minutes, to the Indianapolis Colts (–1.5 at home) in Week 3, and the New Orleans Saints (+3.5 away) in Week 4. The Bolts would have covered those games, too. Shoulda coulda woulda – they're 2-2 ATS heading into Week 5.

Smells like a bargain. And looking at our expanded consensus report, it appears the sharps are sticking with the program. San Diego is a 4.5-point road dog on the NFL odds board for Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders, and at press time, the Bolts have the highest average bet size of anyone at $135. That's 84 percent of the action on this contest, coming from 49 percent of the betting population. Seems legit.


Steam Heat

There's always a catch, isn't there? We're looking at a very small sample size for this matchup; there's tons more volume (in terms of wagers placed) on the New England Patriots, who have the second-highest average bet at $77 for their road game against the Cleveland Browns – that's a 1:00 p.m. Eastern start, and it's also Tom Brady's first game at quarterback for the Pats.

No doubt Bill Belichick is steamed, too, after New England lost 16-0 to the Buffalo Bills (+3.5 away) to fall to 3-1 SU and ATS on the season. But let's get back to our main man McCoy. The Chargers were up 34-21 on the Saints with just over eight minutes to play, and they blew it. They were also up 27-10 early in the fourth against the Kansas City Chiefs (–6.5 at home) in the season opener before losing 33-27 in overtime. Throw in that Colts game, and McCoy had every right to express his frustrations during Sunday's post-game press conference.

We can't predict whether McCoy's players will respond, but their opponents have forced six fumbles this year and recovered all six, so that's just bad luck on top of bad ball protection. At least we can expect more of those fumbles to bounce back into San Diego's hands over the long haul. Let's go ahead and add them to our NFL week 5 picks for a small wager at +4.5.

Free NFL Pick: Chargers +4.5 (–105)
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
Record: 6-5 ATS, 4-5 Totals

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