NFL Week 4 Betting - Saints vs. Chargers To Go 'Under' In San Diego

New Orleans Saints players in field celebrating

Jason Lake

Sunday, October 2, 2016 4:00 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 2, 2016 4:00 PM UTC

Once again, the New Orleans Saints have the highest total on the NFL odds board. Playing on the road against the San Diego Chargers makes the under a valuable NFL pick.


Sometimes you eat the bear; sometimes, the bear eats you. The New Orleans Saints have made a meal of our NFL betting picks against the total – but only at the Superdome, where they've twice crushed the OVER side of the over/under despite posting the highest total of the week. On the road? The Saints went Under by a country mile, losing 16-13 to the New York Giants in East Rutherford.

So how about Sunday's West Coast matinee against the San Diego Chargers? Big surprise, it's the biggest total on the NFL odds board at 53.5 points, and our consensus reports show two-thirds of bettors pounding the OVER. There's also a 54 or two on the board at press time. Every half-point counts.


A Royal Headache

We dealt with the Chargers last week in another pumped-up total, taking UNDER 51 in their game against the Indianapolis Colts and cashing in when the Colts won 26-22. San Diego has the No. 7-ranked offense in the league, but QB Philip Rivers is running out of targets. TE Antonio Gates (hamstring) has joined WR Keenan Allen (knee) on the sidelines, and Gates is once again doubtful for Week 4 after skipping Friday's practice.

Also, stop us if you think you've heard this one before: The Chargers offensive line is in tatters. LT King Dunlap has already been nixed for Sunday's game because of migraines. RT Joe Barksdale (foot) didn't practice Friday, and LG Orlando Franklin (back) only put in a limited session. This has been a recurring theme in San Diego, leading to the following results:

2015-16: UNDER 10-6
2014-15: UNDER 9-7
2013-14: UNDER 9-7

It is what it is. And while the Chargers have a reputation as all offense and no defense, they've improved in the latter category, checking in at No. 16 on the efficiency charts through Week 3. At the other end of the field, the Saints (No. 6 offense, No. 30 defense) still have one of the worst defensive units in the NFL, and the weather report for game-time calls for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 70s. We can't recommend more than a small bet on the UNDER in these conditions, but it's the right play nonetheless.

Free NFL Pick: Under 54 (–115)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada, now offering 100% Cash Welcome Bonus
Record: 5-3 ATS, 4-3 Totals

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