NFL Week 4 Betting - Odds To Influence Your Picks

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Nikki Adams

Sunday, October 2, 2016 3:29 PM GMT

Betting lines that make us go hmmmm... That’s the subject of this column and we go on to shed some light on those and serve up handy NFL picks. 

 

Several NFL lines practically leap off the NFL betting card in week 4. For instance, the Lions laying -2.5 points on the road to the Bears, or the Broncos  laying -3 points on the road to the Bucs. NFL betting trends reveal both these road favourites are taking the majority of the action coming down the wire over the course of the week. 

 

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Opening Line: Lions -2

Although the Detroit Lions are 1-2 SU on the season there are positive signs to be had which contribute to the favourable outlook for week 4 and their clash with the 0-3 SU Chicago Bears. Offense is hopping through three weeks of the NFL season putting up 81 points, which includes a shootout win over the Colts – 39-35 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Matthew Stafford ranks high amongst the offensive leaders (top 5) while Marvin Jones rides high atop the rushing stats ahead of Sunday’s clash with the Bears.

Speaking of the Bears: nobody is buying what they are selling, surely? Winless through three rounds they’ve been simply awful. Not even registering a pulse in any of their defeats. Only loyal and widely optimistic Bears fans would even consider shading the Bears for their NFL week 4 predictions. In fact, at the time of writing, the Lions have 64% of the tickets taken and 66% of the money according to SBR consensus polls

Most of the betting according to bookmakers (around 40%-plus) typically comes down the wire on the day of the game. (NFL Sunday, if you will.) Short of a crystal ball we can’t predict what will happen exactly – i.e. which way the money will flow on Sunday. Will it bettors pound the Lions or will the tide of betting drift towards the Bears?  Considering the current NFL trend reveals a lean towards the visitors, it follows the NFL line is already going up steadily. And if said NFL betting trend continues or picks up pace on Sunday it’s likely to go up even further.

So if you like the look of the Lions as the road faves, lock them down on your NFL picks before the value is lost. In fact, low juice leaders Heritage are up to -3.5 on the Lions already, while most other sportsbooks, including BetOnline, hang this game on a field goal.

 

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Denver Broncos vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opening Line: -3

If there were an NFL betting line to make us go hmmm…it’s this one. Denver Broncos laying -3 on the road. Don’t get it wrong, they deserve to be the fancied visitors but surely by more than a field goal? The quality and depth between these two teams don’t compare, not least the form on the season. Broncos are looking to go 4-0 SU while the Bucs look to snap a two-game losing streak.

What is most surprising about this NFL betting outlook is it’s not even budged this entire week. The line opened on -3 at early doors and the majority of bookmakers are holding court with the field goal but adjusting juice according to the action coming down the wire. Only 5Dimes and a few others tested the waters by reducing the NFL line to -2.5.

As it is, the action is proportional as far as the Broncos are concerned with almost 63% of tickets taken and 72% of the money. Such NFL betting trends indicate the likelihood of this line going up higher on game day unless there is some contrarian betting triggers that will bring about a reverse line movement.

Very simply the Broncos are a steal at -2.5 or -3 depending on your choice sportsbook and it wouldn’t be shocking at all if they steamroll the Bucs and cover this line with plenty to spare. Grab it on your NFL picks before heavy betting pushes it up and all value is lost on the Broncos as the nominal road faves.

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