NFL Week 4 Betting - Identifying Early Sharp-Public Action

Pittsburgh Steelers players in action

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, September 27, 2016 2:15 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 27, 2016 2:15 PM UTC

In the first weeks of the regular season, there has been heavy betting on the favorites, such as Redskins, Texans, Lions, Cowboys and Steelers among others. Let's grab two of these favorites for our NFL week 4 picks.

Sunday, October 2, 2016

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans
Line Opener: Texans -4½ -125, Sunday 8:53 p.m. EDT (BetOnline)
Current Line: Texans -6½ -120, Monday, 7:27 p.m. (BetOnline)

A 2-point move in NFL Week 4 starts at BetOnline, currently offering a 50% Free Play Bonus, in the first 12 minutes on Houston (5-1 ATS vs. AFC South in 2015) and that’s predominantly sharp money. Why? The Titans haven’t looked great to start the Regular Season, going 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS, scoring just 16, 16 and 15 points with two of those games in Nashville, including Sunday’s disappointing 17-10 loss to the Raiders in which Tennessee was actually a 1½-point favorite. Here at NRG Stadium in Houston where the Texans should be motivated after being blanked by the Patriots in NE and this should be a low-scoring affair. The series trends say this early sharp money may be right and that backing the hosts laying 7 or less seems wise in this spot.

The Texans (7-1 ATS L8 Home) are 4-0 ATS and SU in the L4 games against AFC South partner Tennessee who has probably been the best fade team in the NFL the last couple of seasons, going 9-25-1 ATS the L2+ seasons (26.5%). Look for a 6½ early seems like the right NFL week 4 pick as this may hit 7½. 


Free NFL Pick: Texans -6½ -113 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Line Opener:
 Steelers -4 -115, Sunday 6:51 p.m. EDT (BetOnline)
Current Line: Steelers -6 -105 , Monday 5:08 p.m. EDT (BetOnline)


Another early 2-point, sharp money move on the Steelers, and like the Texans, Ben Roethlisberger (52-41-1 ATS at Home), Antonio Brown and Pittsburgh will be coming off a pathetic offensive road performance (@PHI 34-3 PIT) in a game they were favored in (PIT -3½). The Steelers (4-1 ATS L5 Home vs. Chiefs) will get RB Le’Veon Bell back from his 3-game Suspension so with DeAngelo Williams running wild (66 rushes, 258 yards, 2 TDs), who will need a passing game, right? 

Free NFL Pick: Steelers -6 -105 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage
NFL Overall Picks Record: 29-18-0
NFL Regular Season Picks Record: 20-13-0

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