NFL Week 3 Picks & Consensus Report - Who Got It Wrong?

Kevin Stott

Sunday, September 25, 2016 3:57 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 25, 2016 3:57 PM UTC

Let’s look at the Vikings vs Panthers game and the Bears-Cowboys SNF under the premise that these early point spread moves against these two NFC North underdogs is wrong, with NFL picks on both.

The Minnesota Vikings have gone an NFL-best 16-3 ATS their L19 games but playing Cam Newton and the defending NFC champion-Panthers at Home at Bank of America Stadium where they’ve averaged over 40 ppg their L7 will be quite the challenge or the defending NFC North champs. Let’s look at that game and the Bears-Cowboys SNF under the premise these early Point Spread moves against these two NFC North underdogs is wrong, with picks on both.


Minnesota Vikings vs Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. EDT
Opener: CAR -6½
5Dimes Current: CAR -7½

Movement Analysis: The Point Spread here has actually gone up 1 point since its Offshore opening Sunday night, with the host and NFC champion Carolina Panthers (+975 to win Super Bowl, Bookmaker, BetDSI) now laying a TD or more (7½, 5Dimes) against the Minnesota Vikings (+1850 to win Super Bowl, Heritage) at Bank of America Stadium on Sunday where the hosts have averaged a healthy 40.4 ppg in their L7 games. Although the odds for this high-profile NFL Week 3 game seem to be moving the wrong way against a team—the Vikings—who are 16-3 ATS in their L19 games (84.2%)—the Consensus polls seem to have it right midweek with a healthy disparity now.


With Minnesota starting QB Teddy Bridgewater suffering a season-ending Injury before the Regular Season began, the Vikings (+325, to win NFC North, 5Dimes) and HC Mike Zimmer (26-9 ATS) turned to backup Shaun Hill and then traded for Oklahoma-product Sam Bradford from the Philadelphia Eagles and he looked pretty good in a 17-14 SNF win over the rival Packers in Minneapolis. The Under is 8-4 the L12 in this series.


Key Player Injuries, Suspensions

[TE] MyCole Pruitt "?" Sunday vs. Carolina ( Knee )
[DT] Sharrif Floyd out indefinitely ( Knee )
[T] Matt Kalil IR ( Hip )
[QB] Sam Bradford probable Sunday vs. Carolina ( Hand )
[RB] Adrian Peterson IR ( Knee )
[CB] Xavier Rhodes "?" Sunday vs. Carolina ( Knee )
[T] Mike Harris PUP ( Undisclosed )
[QB] Teddy Bridgewater IR ( Knee )
[QB] Taylor Heinicke out indefinitely ( Foot )

[G] Trai Turner probable Sunday vs. Minnesota ( Ankle )
[DT] Kawann Short probable Sunday vs. Minnesota ( Shoulder )
[S] Dean Marlowe IR ( Hamstring )
[LB] Jeremy Cash doubtful Sunday vs. Minnesota ( Hamstring )
[RB] Jonathan Stewart expected to miss Sunday vs. Minnesota ( Hamstring )
[WR] LaRon Byrd IR ( Concussion )
[CB] Leonard Johnson PUP ( Ankle )  

Free NFL Pick: Vikings +7½  
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Opener: DAL -4
5Dimes Current: DAL -8 +105

Movement Analysis: The Point Spread for this NFL Regular Season Week 3 game from AT&T Stadium In Arlington, Texas on Sunday night has risen a whopping 4 points over the L2 days to its current high of DAL -8 -125 at popular Offshore sportsbook 5Dimes, a combination of the public’s reaction to how poorly Chicago (125/1 to win NFC, Bookmaker, BetDSI) played on MNF losing to the Eagles and the rash of Injuries Chicago sustained in that Loss. But it’s hard to back the Cowboys at Home where they are just 1-8 SU the L9, 1-3 ATS the L4 vs. Chicago and Dallas is a pathetic 2-14 its L16 without usual starting QB Tony Romo (Back) in there. If aiming to back Da Bears here, maybe wait and see how how this will go?

The heavy Consensus early money is on the Cowboys (42/1 to win Super Bowl, Heritage) with Mississippi State-product Dak Prescott showing Dallas (+1900 to win NFC, Bookmaker, BetDSI) definitely made the right move in drafting him this Spring.


Key Player Injuries, Suspensions

[DB] Kyle Fuller expected to miss Sunday vs. Dallas (Knee)
[OL] Bobby Massie probable Sunday vs. Dallas (Toe)
[DL] Will Sutton probable Sunday vs. Dallas (Elbow)
[RB] Ka'Deem Carey expected to miss Sunday vs. Dallas (Hamstring)
[DB] Tracy Porter probable Sunday vs. Dallas (Knee)
[LB] Willie Young probable Sunday vs. Dallas (Knee)
[OL] Josh Sitton probable Sunday vs. Dallas (Shoulder)
[WR] Alshon Jeffery probable Sunday vs. Dallas (Knee)
[DB] Chris Prosinski "?" Sunday vs. Dallas (Calf)
[LB] Lamarr Houston IR (Knee)
[DL] Eddie Goldman expected to miss 3-4 weeks (Ankle)
[QB] Brian Hoyer expected to start Sunday vs. Dallas (None)
[LB] Danny Trevathan out indefinitely (Thumb)
[QB] Jay Cutler out indefinitely (Thumb)
[DB] Deon Bush "?" Sunday vs. Dallas (Head)
[DB] Adrian Amos injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Dallas (Concussion)
[DB] Bryce Callahan injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Dallas (Concussion)
[DB] Brandon Boykin IR (Pectoral)
[OL] Hroniss Grasu IR (Knee)
[QB] Connor Shaw IR (Ankle)
[LB] Pernell McPhee PUP (Knee)
[LB] Roy Robertson-Harris PUP (Illness)

[T] Tyron Smith "?" Sunday vs. Chicago (Back)
[DE] Charles Tapper expected to miss Sunday vs. Chicago (Back)
[LB] Mark Nzeocha doubtful Sunday vs. Chicago (Achilles)
[G] Ronald Leary probable Sunday vs. Chicago (Groin)
[T] Doug Free probable Sunday vs. Chicago (Quad)
[DE] Jack Crawford probable Sunday vs. Chicago (Shoulder)
[CB] Orlando Scandrick "?" Sunday vs. Chicago (Hamstring)
[DE] Randy Gregory expected to miss first 14 games (Suspension)
[RB] Darren McFadden PUP (Elbow)
[LB] Rolando McClain expected to miss first 11 games (Suspension)
[LB] Jaylon Smith PUP (Knee)
[TE] James Hanna PUP (Knee)
[QB] Tony Romo out indefinitely (Back)
[DE] Demarcus Lawrence expected to miss first 4 games (Suspension)
[Backup QB] Kellen Moore IR (Fibula) 


NFL REGULAR SEASON WEEK 3 “WHO GOT IT WRONG?” PICKS: Vikings +8 -125, Bears +8 -125 (5Dimes)
NFL FUTURES BOOK VALUE PICK: Vikings To Win NFC North +325 (5Dimes)


Free NFL Pick: Bears +8 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes, where you will find a 50% Free Play Sign Up Bonus!

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