NFL Week 3 Pick: Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, August 24, 2017 8:56 PM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 24, 2017 8:56 PM UTC

Think Houston and New England are tired of seeing each other? This will be their fourth meeting since the 2015 regular season.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-13, 43.5)

The Patriots were shocked in their home opener by Kansas City. What chance would you give them of losing a second straight game at Gillette Stadium? Survivor Pick: New England.

If we are being honest, the Week 3 schedule isn't great. This is the only matchup of teams that made the playoffs last year. The Patriots have won the past six meetings in the series. Neither was all that competitive last year in Foxboro. It was 27-0 in the regular season and 34-16 in the divisional round of the playoffs. Former Texans QB Brock Osweiler was inept in both games, and now the Pats get their first look at Houston rookie Deshaun Watson. Quarterbacks making either their first or second career starts against the Patriots have gone 2-8 in those games since 2001. But Watson brings a mobility factor that Osweiler lacked (among other things he lacked). Watson hasn't thrown the ball great yet, but he had a 49-yard touchdown run last Thursday in Houston's minor upset in Cincinnati. That the Texans have a few extra days off to prepare for the Patriots is a big reason why I'll take all those points. They can manage to lose by only 10. Frankly, I'm always going to take a dog getting more than 10.

  • Texans are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Texans are 3-2 ATS in their past 5 games as a double-digit dog.
Free NFL Pick: Texans +13Best Line Offered: Youwager

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It might seem silly to recommend an under in a Patriots home game considering how good they are offensively. Tom Brady brushed off a disappointing Week 1 by blowing up the Saints in Week 2. That said, the Patriots are incredibly thin at receiver due to injuries. Houston remains one of the NFL's best defenses, allowing just 287.5 yards and 19.0 points per game thus far. On the flip side, Bill Belichick is going to design schemes to utterly confuse Watson. He'll break a few nice runs, but if Watson reaches 150 yards passing I would be surprised.

  • Under is 7-3 in Texans last 10 games overall.
  • Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Free NFL Pick: Under 43.5Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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