NFL Week 3 Pick: Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, August 24, 2017 8:51 PM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 24, 2017 8:51 PM UTC

Come on, NFL! What are you doing scheduling Denver-Buffalo in September instead of December? Those two teams need to be playing in the snow.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (+3, 40.5)

This is one of those picks from the gut more than the head, but this absolutely screams letdown game in my mind for Denver off last week's big performance. But for a Survivor Pool, my pick is still the Broncos.

We are only two weeks in, but no team has played a more complete game than the Broncos did last week in utterly dominating a very good Dallas team, 42-17. Trevor Siemian looked like mini-John Elway, tying a career high with four TD passes. C.J. Anderson ran for 118 yards and a TD and caught three balls for a score. That terrific defense made Ezekiel Elliott look like a JV tailback as he managed all of 8 yards rushing on nine carries. I mean, I could do that. Realistically, the Broncos shouldn't lose this game.  But it's an early Eastern time start and Denver lost starting left tackle Garrett Bolles to an injury in the win over Dallas. He was the team's first-round pick in this year's draft and will miss at least a few games. Buffalo, meanwhile, comes off an ugly 9-3 loss in Carolina -- but at least the defense played well.

  • Broncos are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
  • Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
  • Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Free NFL Pick: Bills +3 (hoping for 3.5)Best Line Offered: Intertops

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The under here couldn't be an easier call. It's two defensive-minded first-year head coaches in Denver's Vance Joseph and Buffalo's Sean McDermott. We all saw what that Broncos defense did to Dallas. Buffalo has been mostly inept offensively, to the point that McDermott had to reaffirm that Tyrod Taylor remains his starting quarterback. The Bills basically screwed Taylor for this season when they traded No. 1 receiver Sammy Watkins to the Rams in August. In last week's loss to Carolina, Buffalo gained only six net passing yards through the first two quarters, the third-lowest output for the franchise since 2001. Basically, that team's entire offense right now is LeSean McCoy.

  • Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 road games.
  • Under is 9-4 in Bills last 13 games in September.
Free NFL Pick: Under 40.5Best Line Offered: Bovada

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