NFL Week 3 Pick: Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, August 24, 2017 9:01 PM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 24, 2017 9:01 PM UTC

Sunday is struggling Cincinnati's first trip to Green Bay since the Bengals won 31-24 at Lambeau in 2009. Marvin Lewis' seat could get hotter with a lopsided loss.

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-9, 44.5)

The Packers are looking to snap a three-game losing streak against Cincinnati and record their first victory over the Bengals since 1998. They will. Survivor Pick: Green Bay.

For what it's worth considering these teams only play once every four years, six of the last seven contests have been settled by seven points or less, including each of the last four. Cincinnati has looked like the AFC's worst team thus far -- yes, worse than Browns and the Jets. The Bengals have totaled nine points in home losses to Baltimore and Houston. Good defenses, I grant you. But nine points!? Fans in Cincinnati already want Andy Dalton replaced by AJ McCarron. Hard to blame them considering Dalton's rating is 47.2. The Packers come off a 34-23 loss in Atlanta on Sunday night when the team lost several key guys. Receiver Jordy Nelson left after eight offensive plays because of a quad injury, and defensive tackle Mike Daniels pulled a hamstring on the Falcons' first drive. WR Randall Cobb left in the fourth with a shoulder injury.

  • Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Packers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Free NFL Pick: Bengals +9Best Line Offered: Sports Interaction

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I don't know who will suit up for the Packers here among Nelson, Cobb, Daniels and starting tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari, both of whom were inactive vs. Atlanta. This is Cincinnati's first game since the team fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese and replaced him with quarterbacks coach Bill Lazor. Totally a deserved firing since the Bengals are the first team to fail to score a touchdown in their first two games at home since the Philadelphia Eagles in 1939. It's also clearly a last-gasp effort of Marvin Lewis to save his job. So why would I go over here? Cincinnati will break out at some point; there's too much talent there. You figure the Packers are good for at least 27 at Lambeau, no matter who is at receiver.

  • Over is 20-8 in Bengals last 28 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Over is 8-1 in Packers last 9 games overall.
Free NFL Pick: Over 44.5Best Line Offered: Heritage

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