We have been cruising with our player and team props for the NFL so far this season and Sunday night brings another juicy matchup for prop betting between the Packers and Vikings. Bovada sportsbook has some nice props for the evening and I have a pair that looks like great value.
Jerick McKinnon O/U 19.5 rushing and receiving yards
When I first saw this prop I kind of had to do a double-take. While Jerick McKinnon was not too involved in the Vikings’ offense in Week 1, with Sam Bradford starting in Week 2, McKinnon might be much more involved as a receiver.
McKinnon is one of the best young run/catch combo backs in the league and he could easily be Darren Sproles 2.0. He has great speed, but is even bigger than Sproles and with the king of the dink and dunk in the game for the Vikings, I expect at least three or four catchers for McKinnon here.
Also, if Adrian Peterson is struggling, McKinnon could see a few more carries in this game. At only 20 yards needed for the over on this one, four targets and three or four rush attempts will easily cash the over for the Vikings’ change of pace back.
I expect his workload to increase back close to what it was at the end of last season when he was touching the ball eight to 10 times per game. As long as that happens this evening against a team that the Vikings might have to pass against, it helps McKinnon’s value for the over across the board, especially after his lower usage last week.
Free NFL Pick: Over 19.5 (-115)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Minnesota Vikings O/U 20.5 points
With Bradford in the game for the Vikings, they actually might score an offensive touchdown this week. On top of that, almost every game script for this game looks as if the Vikings have a chance to get above 20 points.
The Packers’ defense isn’t anything special and they will be without their starting corner, Sam Shields. Bradford has now had more than two weeks to get the offense down and frankly, he likely won’t be asked to do much. Adrian Peterson, Jerick McKinnon, and Kyle Rudolph will likely be asked to play a heavy role in a short-gain, long time of possession offense to keep the ball away from the Packers.
The Vikings are going to let their defense win the game, but that means they need to be fresh, so as long as Minnesota can run the ball and ensure short third downs, their defense will have the advantage.
Even if the Packers get an early lead, the Vikings will be forced to throw the ball a little more, making for an even better offensive environment. Being at home also adds at least another two to three points of upside to the Vikings’ offense. Shaun Hill performed well enough last week, but the Vikings seem to think they have an upgrade after giving away a first and fourth round pick. If Bradford performs like the “upgrade,” the Vikings think he can become, look for 21 or more points for Minnesota for your week 2 NFL predictions on Sunday night.
Free NFLMy Pick: OVER 20.5 points (-110)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada, now offering 100% cash bonus
Season Props Record: 12-4-2