NFL Week 2 Predictions - Betting Value For Highest Totals

New York Giants team gathered around

Jason Lake

Sunday, September 18, 2016 2:41 PM GMT

Sunday, Sep. 18, 2016 2:41 PM GMT

There's a 54 on the NFL odds board, and guess what: That total belongs to the New Orleans Saints. They're playing the New York Giants Sunday at the New Meadowlands.

We're on a mission here at the ranch to squeeze as much betting value as possible out of the highest totals on the NFL odds board. These totals usually get bigger as we approach kick-off, thanks to the efforts of recreational bettors, so the obvious contrarian play is to take the UNDER against the most inflated matchups. So how did we do last week? Not so hot; fourth-quarter outbursts led the OVER to the pay window in both our featured games.

The New Orleans Saints were involved in one of those matchups. We're going to be seeing them a lot this year, and they're already back to haunt us with their outstanding offense and horrible defense. Let's see what the football gods have in store for us this Sunday for our NFL week 2 favorites.


New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants (Total: 54)
By the way, if you're pounding the OVER at the open instead of the UNDER at the close, that's perfectly all right – maybe even better. The sharps piled on this game when the total opened at 51.5 last Sunday, and at press time, our consensus reports show 71 percent of bettors still on board. It's the Saints, what can we say.

But it's also the Giants, who easily went UNDER in their season opener, a 20-19 win over the Dallas Cowboys (UNDER 47.5) in Arlington. This Sunday, they'll be playing in East Rutherford, in the great outdoors, and the weather forecast calls for a 60-percent chance of a thunderstorm at game time. That's probably going to make life tougher for Drew Brees. So will the absence of TE Josh Hill (joining TE Michael Hoomanawanui on the sidelines) and the potential absence of LT Terron Armstead (quadriceps) against the beefed-up Giants defensive line.

Free NFL Pick: Under 54 -105
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Arizona Cardinals (Total: 50)
The only other total to reach 50 points is back in the desert, and it hasn't budged since the open, when 57 percent of bettors were on the OVER. The Cardinals were home in Week 1, too, slipping UNDER the posted total in a 23-21 loss to the New England Patriots (UNDER 44.5). The Buccaneers, on the other hand, rolled over the Atlanta Falcons 31-24 (OVER 46.5) at the Georgia Dome. Remember when the Falcons were good?

We could say the same thing about the Cardinals if this keeps up. They played better defense than the Falcons last week, but they still checked in at No. 17 on the defensive efficiency charts at Football Outsiders (Atlanta was No. 29). Some good news for our purposes, though: Arizona RG Evan Mathis is a game-time decision with a sprained foot. Tough gig.

Free NFL Pick: Under 50.5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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