NFL Week 2 Picks - Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Diego Chargers

Joe Gavazzi

Sunday, September 18, 2016 7:51 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 18, 2016 7:51 PM UTC

2016 Football Selections on this site continue their solid start. Through Wednesday, September 14th, NFL selections are 6-2 ATS. Join as for more week 2 NFL picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Diego Chargers (-3)
That is good for a combined mark of 16-7 ATS (70%) winners!  Although selections may not continue at that torrid pace throughout the season, I assure you that, if you follow the advice embedded in my analyses this season, you will have a better chance to succeed in the point spread wars.  Always remember to shop for value and to use the valuable resources at this site to put every edge in your favor this football season. 

Each week on this site, we will isolate an NFL STEAMROLLER PLAY OF THE WEEK.  It is a game in which I expect our selected team to dominate at the point of attack.  It is based on the fact that NFL teams, who outrush their opponent in any given game by 30 or more yards are a 74% point spread winner this millennium.  In addition, we note that any team, who rushes the ball for 30 times a game, while their opponent does not, has an over 80% chance to cover the spread.  The same is true when playing AGAINST any team, who runs the ball for 22 or fewer times a game, while our team does not.  This situation is also over 80% and was 10-1 ATS in Week 1.

In today’s contest, with a 4:25 ET start, the Jacksonville Jaguars travel across the country to face the San Diego Chargers.  Each of these teams is expected to improve over their 2015 record, which saw the Jags go 5-11 SU and the Chargers’ 4-13 SU.  Yet in Week 1, each of these teams found ways to lose.  I am favoring the Chargers for the bounce back based on their vastly improved run numbers from the first game. 

The Jags were a strong pick across the board for us in their (27-23) home loss, but narrow ATS win, against top-ranked Green Bay.  In so doing, an improved Jacksonville defense allowed just 294 yards.  But, they were squashed at the point of attack, being outrushed 95-48 by Green Bay.  That’s a bad precedent when considering that 4th year HC Bradley is 9-19 ATS as a non-division dog.  Though I expect the Jags’ miserable numbers under Bradley to turn around this year, it is tough to look their way until they begin to win.

For San Diego, who has an equally heartening start to the 2016 NFL season, the Chargers, who were badly bitten by the injury bug last year, led highly regarded KC by 21 points, before the Chiefs bounced back for the eventual 33-27 OT victory.   But, the running numbers for the Chargers, who had been outrushed 125-86 in the previous 2 seasons, were very encouraging. They dominated the point of attack with running numbers of 32/155 to 19/83.  Though the Chargers are just 4-8 ATS when installed as favorite the last 2 years, will be without key offensive opponent, WR Allen (knee), it must be noted that San Diego QB Rivers is a solid 4-0 SU ATS against the Jags, including wins in the last 5 years (in reverse order) of 31-25, 33-14, 24-6, and 38-14.  With the running numbers in their favor, that is enough to lift the Chargers to our NFL STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK. 

I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor and join me in my week 2 NFL pick on the San Diego Chargers today.


Free NFL Pick: San Diego Chargers -3 +102
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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