We have been cruising in our NFL team props and this week alone we are 4-1 in our team props. Monday Night Football brings about one more chance to cash some winning team props and I have found two plays that should end our week on a high note.
Philadelphia Eagles O/U 19.5 Points
Carson Wentz put up a nice showing in his NFL debut and even though the stage is bigger tonight on Monday Night Football and even on the road, the Eagles’ rookie quarterback can still beat a Bears secondary that overall is still not great.
I could easily see the Bears slowing down Ryan Mathews in this one and putting the game in the hands of a rookie quarterback on the road in his first nationally televised game. That’s a lot of pressure, but I think Wentz can live up to it and put up at least 20 points on this Bears defense.
Brock Osweiler made the Bears’ defense look bad last week and even though Chicago might still win this game, it really doesn’t matter much for this prop. If the Bears get an early lead and force the Eagles to throw, there might be more points on the board just because of the potential of garbage time at the end of the game.
That’s one of the reasons I like this prop so much. There are several game scripts that lead to the Eagles scoring 20 or more tonight. They put up 29 points against the Browns last week and the Bears’ defense isn’t much better.
Chicago can stop the run pretty well, but on the other side the Eagles’ defense gave up a ton of yards on the ground last week and if Robert Griffin wasn’t in the game they might have done the same through the air. All in all, the Eagles should have around 21 points in this one, making Bovada’s team total for them just a little low for you to take into account for your Monday night football predictions.
Free NFL Pick: Over 19.5 (-125)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
O/U 3.5 Field Goals
Similar to the above play, the field goal total also represents some potential value tonight. The Bears have their first new kicker in years in Connor Barth and the Eagles are rolling with Caleb Sturgis.
Barth didn’t even get a chance to kick a field goal last week while Sturgis knocked in two of three. Sturgis has never been the most accurate kicker in the league, as his career average after missing one last week is 78.1 percent. If he is missing three out of every four kicks on average that means his odds of missing one tonight are around even money in my eyes.
All it takes is one miss from either of these guys for the under to go from a good to great play and at -125 for the under, the value is there tonight.
Both of these defenses are below average and there should be plenty of opportunities for touchdowns. I could easily see two or three touchdowns from either team with only two or three field goal attempts, so as long as this game isn’t a field goal game and neither team is scoring touchdowns, I think the under is the best route here. In the end, I doubt either defense puts up stellar performances here, making for a less friendly field goal environment.
Free NFL Pick: Under 3.5 (-125)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada now offering welcome bonus worth a look
Season Team Props Record: 8-3