NFL Week 3 Betting Predictions - Arizona Cardinals vs Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills player in action

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, September 20, 2016 7:52 PM GMT

Our sports handicapping guru is coming off a perfect 5-0 NFL week 2. He’ll be previewing this Sunday’s game between Arizona and Buffalo. Go inside to read this revealing betting article which concludes with his free NFL pick.

Shuffling off to Buffalo
Arizona goes on the road for the first time this season on Sunday to take on Buffalo. The opening kickoff at New Era Field is slated for 1:00 PM ET. A consensus of the best sportsbooks indicates that 66.1% of early individual point spread wagers have been made in Arizona. These teams haven’t met since 10/14/12, and Buffalo came away with a 19-16 road victory on that occasion.

 

More Adversity in Buffalo
Buffalo has endured a tumultuous training camp and preseason period. Unfortunately, the seemingly dysfunctional organization has created more drama this past week by firing offensive coordinator Greg Roman after just 2 games. Mind you, this comes following a week in which the Bills amassed 393 yards of total offense against an excellent New York Jets defense. Conversely, what’s been a much maligned defense since Rex Ryan arrived in Buffalo, was torched for 493 yards and 37 points by the Jets.

Long time Rex Ryan running back coach Anthony Lynn will take over Roman’s duties, and it will his first time being an NFL offensive coordinator. There’s no questioning Buffalo’s offensive talent. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how this coaching change pans out, and also how the Bills respond following a disappointing 0-2 start. My professional intuition indicates they’ll react well. Desperation and urgency will be Buffalo’s biggest asset against a very good opponent on Sunday.

 

Never Lost NFL ATS Betting Angle
At the time of this writing, NFL betting odds at Bookmaker shows Buffalo as a 4.5-point home underdog.  Buffalo is coming off a 37-31 loss at the hands of their AFC East rival the New York Jets. Arizona’s previous game resulted in a convincing 40-7 home win over Tampa Bay, and they easily covered as a 7.0-point favorite. This sets up a perfect NFL ATS betting angle. This handicapping algorithm weighs heavily in regards to my NFL week 3 predictions.

Any NFL home underdog of 5.0 or less (Buffalo), coming off a division home loss, versus an opponent (Arizona) coming off a home favorite ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 12-0 ATS since 1983. Furthermore, those home underdogs won 10 of the 12 games outright.


Free NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills +4.5
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