NFL Week 17: False Favorites and Top Dogs

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 23, 2014 7:57 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2014 7:57 PM UTC

I have to be honest; I have enjoyed doing this new weekly article and accompanying video all season at Beating the sportsbooks is always great, especially with NFL picks.

I hope you have been able to utilize some of these for your NFL picks versus the NFL odds as I am proud to say I am 28-18-2 this season. I’ll try and not be like an NFL offensive coordinator and get too cute and stick with the winning formula of two false favorites and one top underdog against the betting odds.


Baltimore a Disappointment This Season
The Ravens could still make the playoffs with a victory and a San Diego loss, but they have suffered a number of disheartening defeats and become very untrustworthy to bettors and NFL football handicappers alike.

Last week’s loss at Houston is unforgivable, as Joe Flacco had arguably his worst professional game ever, being outplayed Case Keenum, who was on the practice squad the week prior.

Cleveland has seen their own woes, scoring only 11.7 points a contest the last month, but going up against Baltimore’s 27th ranked pass defense might help QB Brian Hoyer’s recovery process.

The Ravens being a nine-point home favorite is justified, nonetheless, this team in my opinion cannot be trusted and is a false favorite versus the Browns, who always take this rivalry seriously.

NFL False Favorite – Baltimore


Dallas’ Lack of Motivation Make for Close Encounter
It has been a nice change of pace to see the Cowboys actually play excellent football in December. However, I cannot wrap my mind around why Dallas is  a burgeoning favorite at Washington.

I’m fine with Jerry Jones saying he doesn’t like teams coasting in Week 17 because it could break momentum. (Of course Jerry is doing this from memory since the Cowboys last made the playoffs in 2009)

Nevertheless, Dallas will be the third seed in the NFC unless Detroit and Green Bay finish in a tie and it difficult to imagine the Cowboys go all out even off their earlier loss to Washington.

With the Cowboys having almost nothing to gain and the Redskins a hearty 8-1 ATS against the ‘Boys since 2010, I’ll make Dallas a false favorite.

NFL False Favorite – Dallas


Detroit Keeps this Closer Than the Experts Think
Decided to borrow a line from Lee Corso and apply it to the Detroit Lions. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong but I was quite surprised to see Detroit as a 7.5- point road underdog at Green Bay.

I totally understand Aaron Rodgers and the gang average over 41 points per game at the frozen tundra this season, but the Lions are second in total defense and fewest points allowed at 16.8 per contest.

Despite averaging 422 yards a game in their last trio of outings, the Packers have managed to score only 25.3, which is more than five below their normal average.

As I mentioned in the Value Picks article and video, the Lions do have offensive shortcomings, but this genuinely appears to be too many points, with Detroit making this a three-four point outcome.

NFL Underdog with Bite Detroit +7.5 at BetOnline

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