NFL Week 16 Value Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 16, 2014 5:48 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2014 5:48 PM UTC

We are getting down to the nitty-gritty for NFL picks with some really challenging betting odds. However, off a couple winning weeks and five of six of late, I’m ready to take on the sportsbooks. 

For this week against the NFL odds, I have two situational value plays and another total and believe I have a real shot at 3-0 for Week 16 with these sports picks.

Baltimore Has Massive Quarterback Edge at Houston
You have to feel for the Houston Texans, having lost three quarterbacks in the last three weeks, as both Ryan Fitzpatrick and rookie Tom Savage were lost to injuries against Indianapolis.

The Texans still have a mathematical chance to reach the playoffs but that seems like a real long shot bringing back Case Keenum, who was signed off the St. Louis practice squad.

Keenum played fairly well for Houston for a couple games last year, but defensive coordinators adjusted by taking away his first read and having pass rushers come with the hands up against 6’1 or less quarterback. With Baltimore -4.5, this seems like a great value as a NFL football handicapper, with Joe Flacco having a decided edge, even against a strong front seven from Houston.

The Ravens do not always play hard, but with the Texans 2-11 ATS off a road game, I can see them winning by at least 10 still trying to win the AFC North.

Free NFL Picks:  Baltimore -4.5

Dallas Has More to Play for vs. Indianapolis
It does not appear we will see the old Cowboys act – Fold Like A Tent – this December. Dallas lost their way for awhile at Philadelphia but essentially controlled the game and now can not only win the NFC East, but move to the No. 1 or No. 2 slot and have a home game and a bye week.

Indianapolis has again won their non-competitive division with ease. Coach Chuck Pagano has already been asked if he will rest players this week and he stated he will not. Nonetheless, the way the AFC hierarchy is structured, the Colts right now appear locked into the No.3 spot in the conference; thus, their actual results probably do not matter, though they would like to play cleaner after a dozen turnovers the past four games.

My feeling is this non-conference clash comes down to urgency and the Cowboys have the need to win more and getting a bye would buy time for DeMarco Murray to recover. The fact is Indy just needs to improve, but winning is not tantamount. Dallas by at least 7.

Free NFL Picks: Dallas -3

Raise the Roof on Chiefs at Steelers
My first thought when I saw this AFC affair total of 45.5; no way is that number holding. I was proven correct as the total jumped to 46.5 and that still will not be enough for this NFL pick. Pittsburgh had 398 yards of offense against Atlanta and conceded 397 yards on defense and somehow the game ended Under the total.

Don’t expect that to happen again as the Steelers offense is averaging 35 PPG at home and Ben Roethlisberger and his talented teammates have next to impossible to slow down at Heinz Field. If the Kansas City wide receivers are going to catch a touchdown pass this season, this would seem to be the right opportunity with Pittsburgh allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt and 28.8 PPG at home.

With the Steelers 6-0 OVER at home this season and 8-0 OVER at the same location versus teams with a completion percentage of 61% or higher the last two seasons, this contest blows by the number.

Free NFL Picks: Over 46.5

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