Another day and another dollar in our NFL prop picks series, with my record on the season at 72-62-2. It’s Thursday night, which means that anything can happen, but it's a game that means plenty for the New York Giants and nothing for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Carson Wentz O/U 1.5 TD Passes
The fact that the 'under' for this play is only -165 kind of baffles me. Wentz has been solid at times this season, but he has one or fewer TD passes in nine of his last 10 games -- and in his last five games he has tosses eight picks.
Now he has to face off against a peaking Giants secondary that has been extremely good lately. New York’s secondary has been bend and not break this season, allowing nearly 2,800 yards through the air but just 13 passing touchdowns.
The Giants have allowed more than one passing touchdown just three times this season, and last week the Lions' Matthew Stafford didn’t even get one. Plus, the three QBs New York has allowed multiple passing touchdowns to are Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Kirk Cousins. With the way Wentz has been playing lately, combined with the Giants’ strong secondary, I doubt Wentz has two or more passing TDs in this one.
NFL Free Pick: 'Under' -1.5 (-165)
Best Lines Offered Both Props: Bovada
Odell Beckham Jr. TD Scored
I’m going heavy with the chalk tonight, but I think it will pay off. It’s a bit risky to bet on a touchdown prop when there is so much chalk, but Beckham Jr’s TD odds are only -140.
Beckham has turned it on lately. He has 10 touchdowns this season, and they have all come in his last 10 games. Even though only three of his scores have come on the road, other than the Browns (Beckham dropped two TDs against them) the Eagles might have the worst secondary Beckham has faced in 2016. Combine that with the short week, and Beckham might have another two scores.
The Eagles have allowed 16 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. with 12 of those coming in their last seven games -- and Philly has allowed seven touchdowns to opposing receivers in their last four games alone.
Considering this and the Giants’ defensive prowess, and New York might have a ton of opportunities to score in this one. Beckham is going to be at the front of the aerial assault, so even with the chalk, make a small one-unit play on him to score a TD.