NFL Week 16 Picks: Wise Guy Plays & Public Leans

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, December 20, 2014 1:04 PM GMT

Saturday, Dec. 20, 2014 1:04 PM GMT

Last week I followed the biggest moves of both the public and sharps alike and cashed in every one of my NFL picks!  That's right, the betting trends proved to be prescient last Sunday.

Vikings (+7 ½ to 6 ½) vs. Dolphins
Any time a line goes onto, off of or through a three or a seven it's a pretty big deal because we know as NFL handicappers how important these numbers can be, right?  I would even make the case for the numbers 4,6, 10, 13, 14, 17, 20 and 21 as being particularly relevant but does that mean you should always buy on to or even off of all these numbers?  Personally I will never lay a hook on one of these critical numbers and will simply pay the extra juice to allay my fears.

In this circumstance we have an underdog that is being bet from +7 ½ in NFL odds to +6 ½ which is a pretty big jump because it has pierced the crucial seven.  That makes me quite happy as I have included Minnesota as one of my three NFL picks in my Bust Your Bookie article.  This has all the trappings of sharp action earmarked on Minny.

Free NFL Picks: Sharps on the Vikings

 

Packers (-10 ½ to -13) vs. Bucs
Joe Q. Public has been talking this game up at the water cooler all week long.  The public never saw a double digit road favorite to which they weren't smitten and this is just the latest example.  Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are in everyone's NFL top three power rankings with many putting them at the top of the heap after they defeated the New England Patriots a three weeks ago.  However, if you saw their second half swoon against the Falcons in Week 14 then you had to know that they were ripe for the picking by the Bills last week.  At least the sharps knew it and we reported it right here last week before it even happened.  In addition, I included Buffalo as one of my NFL picks in last week's Bust Your Bookie article where I went 3-0 but I digress.

This week the conventional wisdom of course is that the Packers are going to be very angry about their most recent performance and shall exact revenge on the woeful Tampa Bucs.  Sure it could play out like that but in the parity driven league that is the NFL where no team is as good as they looked on their best day nor as bad as they looked on their worst, I would be wary of fading a team at home with a 13 point head start.

Free NFL Picks:  Public on the Packers

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Lions (-4 ½ to -9 ½) vs. Bears
Before you look at the startling jump in this line and conclude that the North Korean hackers breached the firewall of Billy Walters' computer and plucked the Lions as his Game of the Year I need you to take a breath and peruse the injury report before you blindly add the Lions to your NFL picks just because the steam says to do so.

As many of you know, the volatile and often polarizing Jay Cutler has been benched in favor of little Jimmy Clausen who hasn't thrown a football in anger since Pop Warner.  Couple a rusty quarterback opposing the top defense in the league and you have all the makings of a tremendous swing in the NFL odds promulgated almost entirely by a stampede of public opinion.

Free NFL Picks: Public on the Lions

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