NFL Week 16 Pick: Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, December 19, 2017 11:39 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2017 11:39 PM UTC

The Kansas City Chiefs could repeat as AFC West champions on Sunday with a victory (or Chargers loss). The Fins are still barely alive for a wild-card spot. Survivor Pick: Kansas City.

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 43.5)

Typical Jay Cutler. He played terrific football on Monday night in Week 14 to lead a stunning upset of the New England Patriots. But in Sunday’s 24-16 loss in Buffalo, Cutler completed 28 of 49 passes for 274 yards and tossed three interceptions. He also fumbled four times but recovered all four. Miami fell behind early, trailing 21-6 at the break, and Cutler responded with interceptions to end his team’s first two possessions after halftime. Cutler has thrown multiple picks in three of his last four games, after no such performances in his eight games to start the season. For Miami to make the playoffs, all these things must happen: Fins win out to finish 8-8; the Titans must lose at home to the on Sunday and at home to the Jaguars on Dec. 31 to finish 8-8; the 6-8 Raiders must lose one game; the 7-7 Chargers must lose one game; the Patriots must beat visiting Buffalo on Sunday. Meanwhile, Kansas City will win the AFC West as long as it doesn’t lose out. One loss each by the Raiders and Chargers also would accomplish that. The Chiefs have never won back-to-back division titles.

  • Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
  • Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
Free NFL Pick: Chiefs -9.5 (buy down from 10)Best Line Offered: SkyBook

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With Cutler’s inconsistency, it’s hard to see Miami bringing him back next year. Cutler was coerced out of retirement to sign a one-year, $10 million contract. Miami is more likely to stick with former starter Ryan Tannehill, who is recovering from knee surgery, or go in a different direction via the draft or free agency. The Fins have a good group of receivers – Jarvis Landry has at least 60 yards or a touchdown in seven straight weeks -- and a rising star at running back in Kenyan Drake. Kansas City looks like it did when it started 5-0 following wins over the Raiders and Chargers at Arrowhead. Kareem Hunt rushed 24 times for 155 yards and a touchdown and caught seven passes for 51 yards and a score vs. the Bolts. Hunt broke seven attempted tackles and gained 99 yards after contact. He also passed the late Joe Delaney as the franchise’s single-season rookie rushing leader with 1,201.

  • Under is 11-5-1 in Dolphins last 17 games in Week 16.
  • Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games overall.
Free NFL Pick: Under 43.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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