NFL Week 16 Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, October 5, 2017 11:21 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 5, 2017 11:21 PM UTC

Could this be a trap game for the Jaguars after they clinched a playoff berth and have to fly across country to face the suddenly-hot 49ers? It’s tempting, but no. Survivor Pick: Jacksonville.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (+4, 42.5)

The Jaguars crushed the Houston Texans 45-7 last week to clinch the franchise’s first playoff berth since 2007. There is still more to be done, however. The Jaguars will clinch the AFC South with a win/tie against the 49ers, or a Titans loss/tie to the Rams. In addition, Jacksonville is just a game back of Pittsburgh for the AFC’s second seed. The Jaguars throttled the Steelers earlier this season and thus would win any tiebreaker. Alas, it’s hard to see Pittsburgh losing at Houston this week or home to Cleveland next. Will the Jags have Leonard Fournette here? The rookie sat out the Texans game with quad and ankle injuries. Fournette has missed three games this season but the run game hasn’t been impacted at all by his absence. The Jaguars average 146.6 rushing yards per game when Fournette plays, but 158.0 yards in the three games he has missed. The Jaguars ran for 474 yards and three touchdowns in their victories over Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Houston. San Francisco is on an unlikely three-game winning streak, all since moving Halloween trade acquisition Jimmy Garoppolo into the starting lineup. He’s now 5-0 as a starter in his career dating to last season with the Patriots. However, he’s going against the NFL’s No. 1 overall and passing defense here. The Jags still have something to play for so they are the pick. They are 9-5 ATS on the season, which is tied for the third best mark in the NFL.

  • Jaguars are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.
  • 49ers are 5-16-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Free NFL Pick: Jaguars -4Best Line Offered: GT Bets

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3193259, "sportsbooksIds":[1602,92,169,999991,227], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Jimmy G is the first quarterback since Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 to win his first five career starts. It was an absolute theft that the Niners got him for only a second-round pick to New England. Garoppolo is going to be a very rich man after this season, either getting slapped with the franchise tag or singing a long-term extension with the 49ers. Among the NFL quarterbacks who have started past three weeks, he ranks second in yards, yards per attempt, first downs by pass, third in raw QBR, fourth in total QBR, 7th in completion percentage and tied for 1st in wins. But the best quarterback this month has been, shockingly, Blake Bortles. Over his past three games, Bortles has completed 71.4 percent of his passes for 903 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. The Jags are averaging 35 points per game in December. Three weeks ago, the Jags were locked in a tie with the Titans for first place in the AFC South. They haven’t lost since. The schedule has certainly helped Bortles over the last three weeks. He’ll come back to earth a bit here as will Garoppolo against that terrific defense.

  • Under is 5-2 in Jaguars last 7 road games.
  • Under is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 games overall.
Free NFL Pick: Under 42.5Best Line Offered: JustBet

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3193259, "sportsbooksIds":[1275,1389,93,1096,999993], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here