NFL Week 16 Pick: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, December 20, 2017 12:35 AM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2017 12:35 AM UTC

If you believe in letdown/trap games, boy does Sunday’s look like a very big potential one for the Patriots against a Bills team still in the wild-card hunt. Survivor Pick: New England.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-12.5, 47)

Of course, the longest playoff drought in the NFL belongs to the Bills. This is the third time they have had an 8-6 record since last making the postseason in 1999 but obviously things didn’t work out the first two. Buffalo currently sits seventh in the AFC standings despite the same record as No. 5 Tennessee and No. 6 Baltimore. The Titans are the fifth seed by virtue of the fact that they have seven conference wins already. Baltimore and Buffalo both have 6-4 AFC conference records. The Bills don’t play either the Titans or Ravens. If we can assume that Buffalo is going to lose in New England, things aren’t totally lost for the Bills. If the Titans win out and the Bills and Ravens tie for the final playoff spot at 9-7, Buffalo should get in as long as it beats the Dolphins in Week 17. If the Ravens win out and the Bills and Titans split their final two games to finish 9-7 and tie for the final wild-card spot, Buffalo getting in would depend on which game the Titans lose. Got all that? The Patriots don’t have any such worries as they have clinched the AFC East for the 14th time in the past 15 seasons. That epic ending in Pittsburgh, though leads me to believe the Pats might be a bit flat here for a while.

  • Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New England.
  • Road team is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 meetings.
Free NFL Pick: Bills +12.5Best Line Offered: Heritage

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There are only three ways Buffalo can miss the playoffs by beating the Dolphins next week. They are: Going 10-6 but beaten by the 10-6 Ravens and 10-6 Jaguars while the 10-6 Titans win the AFC South; going 9-7 but losing a two-team tie with the 9-7 Titans if the Titans lose to the Rams but beat the Jaguars; or going 9-7 but losing a two-team tie with the 9-7 Chargers while the Chiefs win the AFC West and the Ravens or Titans lose out. The Patriots can only clinch the AFC’s top seed this weekend with a win and Steelers loss in Houston. Tom Brady has beaten Buffalo 27 times in his career, most of any quarterback against any foe. It was 23-3 in Week 13. Brady didn’t throw a TD pass and was picked off once. Rex Burkhead had two rushing touchdowns. Rob Gronkowski caught nine balls for 147 yards and delivered a total cheap shot on Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White after White picked off Brady. White was evaluated for a concussion, while Gronk was suspended for a game. If this game gets out of hand, things could get chippy in a hurry because of that.

  • Under is 5-2 in Bills last 7 road games.
  • Under is 8-2 in Patriots last 10 games overall.
Free NFL Pick: Under 47Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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