It’s the start of another week of NFL prop betting, and for Thursday night we have a knockdown, drag out NFC West game between the Rams and Seahawks. One team fired its coach and the other club's best defender hates Thursday games, so let’s make some money off it. NFL props season record: 70-58-2.
This is a tough one considering this game is in Seattle, and the Rams could easily lie down and die on a short week and with an interim head coach. However, the Seahawks are on a short week as well and it could lead to some pretty bad offensive football.
We all watched Seattle get blasted by a suddenly great Packers squad last week, but even with the 'Hawks back at home this divisional battle has some history of low-scoring games. The -16 NFL odds in favor of the Seahawks might confuse some, but in the end these two teams play each other close and tough most of the time -- see L.A.'s 9-3 win in Week 2.
That’s why I don’t see a score in the first 6:30 of this one. The Seahawks are going to run the heck out of the ball at home, and now that Jeff Fisher is gone the Rams might start actually using Todd Gurley. I know that’s a novel concept for this Rams’ offense, which is easily the worst in the NFL, but look at it this way: If the Rams win the toss and are able to move the ball on the ground to start the game, we should easily cash ‘no’ on this play for some nice Thursday profit.NFL Free Pick: No (-105)Best Lines Offered Both Props: Bovada
Jared Goff O/U 1.5 TD Passes
This one is also easy for me. The 2016 No. 1 oveall pick Goff has a long way to go, as evidenced by his performance last week against the Falcons’ horrible defense. Now he has to go on the road in one of the tougher places to play in all of football, and as long as he doesn’t get a couple of garbage -ime touchdown passes the 'under' is the clear play here.
The Seahawks have allowed just 14 touchdown passes all season and only seven of those have come in Seattle. If you take away the three that Matt Ryan threw there earlier in the season, the Seahawks have allowed their six other home opponents ... well, you can do the math.
Goff is not going to get two here, and he may not even get one. The Rams are probably going to be throwing a lot in this game, but that doesn’t mean the Seattle secondary is going to allow them to get into the end zone. Even with the chalk at -195, it’s still over 50% of profit with a cash here.NFL Free Pick: 'Under' -1.5 (-195)