We are fast approaching the end of the NFL regular season, and I am back once again with two more early week value plays. Almost every one of the NFL Odds are out across the board, and I have found two this week that I think have some nice value.
Eagles vs. Vikings
There are several storylines that could have an affect on this game, and the NFL Odds have the Eagles as -4 ½ favorites this week, with a larger total of 51 points. The Eagles have taken over the 3rd overall seed the playoffs, and all of the Chip Kelly doubters are looking rather foolish. Philly has been solid on the road this season, and think that trend will continue this week against one of the league’s worst defenses.
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU on the road this season, with their only loss coming at the hands of the Broncos in Denver. I think being only a four-point favorite here is undervaluing them slightly, and even though the Vikings’ offense has looked a little better under Matt Cassel, the potential for a lapse here is great. However it’s not that the Eagles’ defense will play particularly well, it’s mostly because I sincerely doubt Adrian Peterson plays this week.
At 3-9-1 SU, the Vikings have long been eliminated from playoff contention, and with Peterson dodging the bullet of another long-term injury, the Vikings would be wise to hold out their franchise player for this week and maybe longer. Peterson is in a walking boot, and even if the Vikings look to trade him this offseason, he needs to have value. It would be very stupid for the Vikes to play Peterson this week, even if he wants to. He is doubtful currently, and his season should probably end at 1221 yards.
This would mean that Toby Gerhart would take the reins this week, and although he performed well last week after Peterson’s injury, I doubt he can sustain it four quarters against the Eagles. Besides, the Vikings are going to have to throw to beat Philly, and I just don’t see it happening.
NFL Pick: Eagles -4 ½
Texans vs. Colts
Even though the Colts are at home, I’m a little less excited about this NFL pick than I am the Eagles, however I do think the Colts are the play here. The Texans might be the worst team in the NFL outside of their secondary and Andre Johnson on offense. With no Arian Foster, this team has looked lost, and things won’t get better this week.
Besides their hiccup against the Rams a few weeks ago, the Colts have actually been pretty good this season at home. Even though Houston has had the extra rest from playing this past Thursday, I still think Indy is the play here. They are -5 ½ favorites in the NFL Odds, and after getting blown out by Cincinnati last week, they may be a point or two undervalued here.
Houston is 0-5 SU in their last five trips to Indianapolis, and in their last seven trips there, they are 2-5 ATS. On the road, I expect the Texans’ offense to struggle some, and for the Colts to take over the game by the 3rd quarter. Don’t look at last week and judge the Colts, because the Bengals are certainly one of the best teams in the AFC. I see Indy returning home and defending their playoff chances.
NFL Pick: Colts -5 ½