NFL Week 15 Picks: Wise Guy Plays & Public Leans

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, December 13, 2014 2:34 PM GMT

Last week the public did the splits while those who followed the supposed sharps and included the Chiefs in their NFL picks flamed as KC failed to cover against the rampaging Cardinals. In Week 15 we once again track the NFL odds looking for an angle to play and a bet to cash.

Jaguars vs. Ravens (-13 to -14)
Joe Q. Public never saw a double digit favorite he didn't like and the Baltimore Ravens are no different as they have been inched from -13 to the equivalent of two touchdowns (yes, extra points included for those finicky enough to point that out) in the prevailing NFL odds.

I am not going to be cajoled into making either side one of my NFL picks this week so this game is a pass for me. However, the Jags have been playing better in the second half of the season so they may wind up costing the squares quite a few dineros.

Free NFL Picks: Public on the Ravens                                                   

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290780, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

 

Dolphins vs. Patriots (-7 to -9)
Once again this has the public's fingerprints all over it as the Patriots have been a juggernaut as of late and this contest against a divisional rival is also a revenge game after the Fish defeated the Pats down in Miami earlier this season. Perhaps the only aspect of this that may cause me to arch an eyebrow is that the money has driven the NFL odds in this off the critical number of seven. There are more than a few games that fall on seven and if this one does as well then you can expect a lot of glum chalk eaters here.

Free NFL Picks: Public on the Patriots

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290776, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

 

Bucs (+5 to +3) vs. Panthers
I watched the line on this game after news broke on Tuesday of Cam Newton's car accident and the subsequent injuries that would preclude him from suiting up and thus paving the way for backup Derek Anderson to take the reins of the Carolina offense. The market was unaffected and that could have been due to the fact that the rumors of the severity of Newton's injuries, which proved on the money that Newton would not go, were considered too speculative to immediately drive the number down.

However, as of this late writing the NFL odds have dropped on the Panthers a total of two points where they are now installed as three-point home favorites. This appears to be a reaction to the loss of Cam Newton under center for Carolina so we will call this a public move.

Free NFL Picks: Public play on the Bucs

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290781, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

 

Packers (-5 ½ to -4) vs. Bills
There's something funky about this game and I believe the sharps are firmly on the dog here. The public would naturally be compelled to bet the darling of everyone's power rankings the Green Bay Packers but the line has actually dropped a point-and-a-half which smacks of wise guy action. I believe the sharp side is the right side here particularly when considering how miserably the Pack faded in Monday night's second half against the Falcons. That also calls to mind Green Bay is working on a short week against a very determined and talented Buffalo defense.

Free NFL Picks: Sharps on the Bills

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290779, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

 

49'ers vs. Seahawks (-7 ½ to 10 ½)
While there are some offshores dealing Seattle -10 ½ it should be noted that those 10 ½'s come with extra juice attached so it is not a genuine 10 ½. That being said the majority of books out there are at either -9 ½ or -10 on the Seahawks which reflects plenty of money being driven towards Seattle. But I am not convinced this is sharp action. This looks like public disenchantment with the Niners due to a stunning road loss against the Oakland Raiders.

Free NFL Picks: Public on the Seahawks

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290784, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]