NFL Week 15 Picks – False Favorites and Top Dogs

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 9, 2014 7:35 PM GMT

I retrieved my money back from the sportsbooks this past week with a successful foray, utilizing the NFL picks from this article. It is time to back this up with another winning week!

For Week 15, I’ll stick with the winning formula against the NFL odds of using two false favorites and one live underdog to snap up more cash with these sports picks.

 

Green Bay Has Scoring Drop Off on the Road
The Packers are 7-0 and 5-1-1 ATS at Lambeau Field this year and are scoring a sensational 41.1 points per game with Aaron Rodgers at the controls.

However, take Green Bay away from the cheesy Wisconsin turf and the offensive production plummets like winter cold front coming through their state, down to 22.5 points per game.

With the Packers 5.5-point road favorites at Buffalo, the combination of reduced scoring and facing the top sacking unit in the NFL in the Bills, the betting odds begin to seem a little high.

While QB Kyle Orton and the Buffalo offense is hardly prolific, the Pack’s defense took a serious hit on Monday against Atlanta and fell to 26th in total defense, making them a hard squad to back this Sunday.

NFL False Favorite – Green Bay

 

Should Seattle Really Be This Large a Favorite?
While long-time singer Tony Bennett might have left his heart in San Francisco, those betting football are abandoning the football team in a hurry. The 49ers are teetering on collapse and when something like this occurs, it is more than one reason, thus we can assume Jim Harbaugh, Colin Kaepernick and both the offensive and defensive lines are all a part of the equation.

Seattle on the other hand is morphing into an eerily similar squad like last season, with the defensive in total control, Russell Wilson in charge of a punishing ground attack and himself taking care of the rest.

Nonetheless, the Seahawks up to 10-point favorites in this contest sure seems like a lot points. It is understood that Seattle is 7-0 ATS in the most recent contests, but I would assume the Niners have more pride and can keep the outcome closer than the odds makers number. Too many points on the home team I believe.

NFL False Favorite – Seattle

 

Atlanta Looks the Part of a Live Home Underdog
NFL football handicappers and sports bettors agree the Atlanta defensive is a sorry group. The Falcons are last in total defense in the league and after being lit up like a Christmas tree (topical reference) for over 500 yards by Green Bay, the Birds flew from a Pick to +3 against visiting Pittsburgh.

Besides, probably close to 40 percent of the crowd in Atlanta likely will be dressed in black and gold and the trio of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are nearly as hot a boy band as One Direction is presently.

Yet when I look at Atlanta, I see an offense which can score with anybody, particularly at home, where they are averaging 31.8 PPG. The Pittsburgh defense is somewhat better than Atlanta’s but is still conceding 24.5 PPG and is 2-9 ATS as road favorite off a double digit victory facing a team with a losing record.

I will make the Falcons a very live dog for my NFL pick!

NFL Underdog with Bite – Atlanta