NFL Week 15 Pick: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, December 12, 2017 7:50 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2017 7:50 PM UTC

Very unusual schedule quirk with these AFC East rivals as here we are in Week 15 and it’s their first meeting of the season. They play again Week 17. Survivor Pick: Buffalo.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (TBA)

How have these AFC East rivals not played this season? That has to be a record for latest in the year. Miami closes the season at home vs. the Bills. I really didn’t expect this to have much playoff relevance, but who thought the Fins would upset the visiting Patriots as double-digit underdogs on Monday night? They did, 27-20. Jay Cutler played arguably his best game of the season in throwing for 263 yards and three scores, while Kenyan Drake continues to make everyone forget about Jay Ajayi as he had 114 yards rushing on 25 carries and 79 yards receiving on five catches. At 6-7, the Fins aren’t out of the wild-card hunt. They sit 10th overall in the AFC standings. Buffalo (7-6) holds the final wild-card spot following its 13-7 OT win in a blizzard over the Colts last Sunday and Baltimore losing a shootout in Pittsburgh. The Bills currently win tiebreaks over the 7-6 Ravens and 7-6 Chargers. In that wild win over Indy, LeSean McCoy carried the ball a career-high 32 times and his 156 rushing yards were the most of his Bills career and the sixth-most of his NFL career. McCoy scored the winning TD in overtime. McCoy now has 9,961 career rushing yards, putting him 39 yards short of becoming the 30th member of the NFL's club of 10,000-yard career rushers. This seems like a letdown game for Miami. Plus the short week.

  • Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
  • Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Buffalo.
Free NFL Pick: Bills*Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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There’s no line or total yet because it’s not clear who starts at quarterback for Buffalo. Tyrod Taylor missed the Colts game with a bruised patellar tendon and rookie Nathan Peterman got his second career start. He was knocked out in the third quarter with a concussion and third-stringer Joe Webb finished the game. Webb is really a quarterback in name only as prior to Sunday he hadn’t completed a pass in the regular season since 2011 (although he did go 11 for 30 for the Vikings in a loss to the Packers in the wild-card round of the 2012 playoffs). Tight end Logan Thomas, who played quarterback at Virginia Tech but is now a tight end for the Bills, would have gone under center had Webb been hurt vs. the Colts. The Bills may have to make a move to bring a veteran free agent quarterback onto the team for insurance. From what I’ve read, though, the team thinks Taylor will be ready. That’s why I picked the Bills to win at home. I like under regardless as Miami’s defense has put strong games back-to-back and, well, it’s Buffalo in mid-December.

  • Under is 6-2 in Dolphins last 8 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
  • Under is 5-2 in Bills last 7 games following a straight up win.
Free NFL Pick: Under*Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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