NFL Week 15 Pick: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Matthew Jordan

Monday, December 11, 2017 11:57 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 11, 2017 11:57 PM UTC

If you watched the Jaguars destroy the Texans in Week 1, you knew things were going to be different for these teams in 2017. Survivor Pick: Jacksonville.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-11.5, 39.5)

Back in Week 1, Jacksonville went to Houston and pummeled the Texans 29-7. Leonard Fournette ran for 100 yards and a touchdown in his NFL debut, and Jacksonville had 10 sacks and forced four turnovers. Blake Bortles threw for 125 yards and a touchdown, Calais Campbell had four sacks and Dante Fowler returned a fumble 53 yards for a touchdown. Texans coach Bill O’Brien benched Tom Savage for rookie Deshaun Watson at halftime with Houston down 19-0. Of course, we all know how good Watson was before he went down with a season-ending torn ACL. The 11.5-point spread marks the first time since 2007 that the Jags have been favored by 11 or more points. The Jags were favored by 10 points in Week 3 at home vs. Indianapolis and covered in a 30-10 victory. This is Jacksonville’s final home game, although it would obviously get at least one in the playoffs should it win the AFC South. The Jags clinch at least a wild-card spot with a victory here. I do think they win, but I can’t recommend giving that many points. Houston should hang within 10.

  • Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
  • Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Jacksonville.
Free NFL Pick: Texans +11.5Best Line Offered: Heritage

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It’s going to be third-string Houston quarterback T.J. Yates against the NFL’s top-ranked pass defense and its No. 1 pass rush. That’s because Savage suffered a rather scary-looking concussion in last week’s loss to San Francisco – you could see Savage’s arms twitching after the hit. Yet he was allowed back in the game for a while in a clear screw up regarding the concussion protocol. Yates took over for Savage late in the second quarter against the 49ers. He completed 14-of-26 for 175 yards and threw two touchdown passes, both to DeAndre Hopkins. Yates also rushed for 31 yards on three carries in the 26-16 loss. In his seven NFL seasons, Yates has seen action in 18 games and started seven. The last time Yates was the starting quarterback was on Dec. 20, 2015 at Indianapolis. It’s not clear who his backup might be. It might be little-known Taylor Heinicke, who was released last month from the Patriots practice squad. Don’t look now, but Jags QB Blake Bortles has thrown for 577 yards, 71 percent completions, four touchdowns, no interceptions and zero sacks the past two weeks. He looked very good in Sunday’s win over Seattle. He had three completions of 20 or more yards, including a 75-yard touchdown pass to Keelan Cole one play after Seattle tied the game.

  • Under is 7-3 in Texans last 10 road games.
  • Under is 6-0 in Jaguars last 6 vs. AFC.
Free NFL Pick: Under 39.5Best Line Offered: JustBet

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