NFL Week 15 Pick: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, October 5, 2017 8:02 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 5, 2017 8:02 PM UTC

How many fans will show in Cleveland for this one? It’s the final home game of the season for the Factory of Sadness. Survivor Pick: Baltimore.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+7, 40)

To no surprise, the Ravens have owned this series in recent years because every team that plays the Browns owns them. Baltimore has won 17 of the past 19 in the series. In Week 2, the Ravens won 24-10 at home. Joe Flacco threw for 217 yards and two scores, although it was a costly victory as Ravens six-time Pro Bowl guard Marshal Yanda fractured his left ankle and was lost for the season. Browns rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer left with a migraine headache in the second quarter after four ineffective series: a three-and-out, a lost fumble, an interception and a punt. He was replaced by Kevin Hogan, although Kizer eventually returned. Kizer was picked off three times and lost a fumble. It should be noted that the Ravens haven’t covered large spreads in December of late. Since 2012, the Ravens are 0-6 ATS in December games where they're favored by five or more points (4-2 straight-up). Overall, the Ravens are 4-11 ATS in their past 15 games where they're favored by at least five. Still, the team is fighting for a playoff spot and can’t afford to take the Browns lightly in Cleveland’s final home game.

  • Ravens are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Cleveland.
  • Browns are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. AFC North.
Free NFL Pick: Ravens -6.5 (buy down from 7)Best Line Offered: Matchbook

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If the Ravens weren’t fighting for a wild-card spot, I would be worried here. They might be a bit physically and emotionally drained following Sunday night’s wild 39-38 loss at Pittsburgh. The Ravens had 413 yards of offense but allowed a whopping 545. Alex Collins continued his late-season surge with 120 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. Flacco threw for 269 yards passing with two touchdowns and one interception but was strip-sacked by rookie linebacker T.J. Watt on the Ravens' final snap. By winning out, the Ravens would earn a wild-card berth by edging out the Bills because of a better record against common opponents and beat out the Chargers because of a superior conference mark. Cleveland blew a 21-7 fourth-quarter lead last week and lost 27-21 at home in overtime to Green Bay. In a game in which the Browns had touchdown drives of 88, 70 and 84 yards, they ultimately lost, falling to 1-31 over their past 32, and 1-28 during Hue Jackson's tenure as coach. Isaiah Crowell rushed for 121 yards and Josh Gordon caught a TD pass in his second game back from suspension.

  • Over is 6-0 in Ravens last 6 games in December.
  • Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Cleveland.
Free NFL Pick: Over 40Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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