Week 14 is here and I am back this weekend with two more prop picks from Bet365. This edition is of the player variety, and I have found a couple of touchdown props that I think will be great plays in this week’s NFL picks.
The Steelers welcome in the Dolphins this week, and although the NFL Odds on the spread and total are inviting, I see more value in a touchdown prop. Pittsburgh’s stellar rookie, LeVeon Bell has come on in the second half of the season after missing almost the entire first half, and he should see a heavy workload today against the Dolphins’ defense.
The price on Bell isn’t great, but at -110, it seems like a pretty good wager considering the situation. The weather might be bad in Pittsburgh. It’s likely going to be snowing by game time if not before, and even though Ben Roethlisberger is used to this weather, the Dolphins are not. Playing in snow will likely mean a lead for the Steelers, and extra touches for Bell. He is getting a lot of red zone and goal line touches, and even at -110, this value is there.
The Dolphins have given up 12 touchdowns to opposing running backs, and they are statistically one of the worst defenses defending the run this season. If this game is slower and lower scoring, Bell should get plenty of touches against this defense, and I see him getting into the end zone because of it. He got there last week, and he has been the main option at the goal line for Pittsburgh.
My Pick: LeVeon Bell TD Scored (-110)
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Another guy that hasn’t gotten a lot of respect this season is Chris Johnson, who is priced in at +140 to score a touchdown this week. The Titans are on the road in Denver, however even though they’ll likely be playing from behind, Johnson will see a majority of the catch-up packages Tennessee will likely have to deploy. It will be cold in Denver today, and both teams will likely have to run the ball. This and Denver’s unique problem on defense could lead to more touches for Johnson, and possibly a TD.
Denver has given up 15 touchdowns to running backs this season, which is tied for 2nd most in the NFL this season. On top of that, five of them have been through the air. Johnson has five TDs in the Titans’ last five games, as well as a score last week. With the value being presented, +140 seems like enough to take a stab.
Johnson has seven TDs this season, and he doesn’t get a lot of hype for it. He scored last week against the Colts, and there is no reason to believe he can’t do it again this week. He might have to break away a big run, however the Broncos’ run defense has not been that good either recently or all of this season. While it may be a long shot, I see Johnson getting into the end zone against the Broncos.My Pick: Chris Johnson TD Scored (+140)