NFL Week 14 Pick: San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, October 4, 2017 11:15 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2017 11:15 PM UTC

I’d say the only thing at stake is here a better draft pick in 2018, but Houston doesn’t own its first-round pick – that goes to Cleveland. Survivor Pick: Houston.

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-2.5, 42.5)

The only way this game would have been interesting is if Jimmy Garoppolo and Deshaun Watson. Garoppolo will be on the field Sunday in Houston for the Niners, but not Watson. Jimmy G’s first start with San Francisco in Week was a success as he led a 15-14 upset win in Chicago – frankly, the victory might bite the Niners in the long run in terms of knocking them out of any shot at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft. Garoppolo, who is from Chicago, completed 26 of 37 passes for 293 yards with an interception. Robbie Gould made five field goals in his first appearance at Soldier Field since Chicago cut him prior to the 2016 opener. He is the Bears' all-time leader in points and field goals made. Houston has just one victory since Watson went down with his season-ending ACL tear. They lost 24-13 in Tennessee on Sunday. Tom Savage threw an interception in the Tennessee end zone with 1:02 left. The Texans are now guaranteed to finish with a non-winning record for the first time under Bill O’Brien. I simply like the home team here.

  • 49ers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
  • Texans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Free NFL Pick: Texans -2.5Best Line Offered: Matchbook

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One thing that definitely improved for the Niners under Garoppolo was their performance on third down. They converted 10-of-18 for 56 percent, the second-best percentage they've had on third down this season. That helped Niners control the clock to the tune of a 38:47 to 21:13 time of possession advantage. Garoppolo was 9-of-12 for 115 yards against the blitz, a vast improvement for a team that completed 49.6 percent of its passes against the blitz entering the game, 29th in the NFL. O’Brien entering last weeks mentioned he might bench Savage if the QB kept turning the ball over. He had that one late crushing pick but no others so as of now he’s apparently still the starter. Houston could be really short-handed this week as six players left the Titans game and didn’t return: tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz (concussion), cornerback Johnathan Joseph (shoulder), wide receiver Bruce Ellington (hamstring), wide receiver Braxton Miller (concussion), running back Alfred Blue (concussion) and inside linebacker Jelani Jenkins (concussion). Houston did on Monday activate starting linebacker Brian Cushing from the reserve/suspended list. It’s not clear if he will regain that starting role.

  • Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games overall.
  • Under is 9-4 in Texans last 13 games following a straight up loss.
Free NFL Pick: Under 42.5Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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