NFL Week 14 Pick: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, October 4, 2017 10:55 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2017 10:55 PM UTC

One of the better Thursday night games of the season with only one TNF game left next week. These two teams play again in Week 16. Survivor Pick: Atlanta.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (Pick’em, 53.5)

It’s the penultimate Thursday night game of the season – and you’ll want to enjoy this because next Thursday’s between the Broncos and Colts is going to be essentially unwatchable. This one, on the other hand, is one of the biggest games of Week 14. The Saints (9-3) lead the NFC South by a game over the Carolina Panthers, but it’s really two games because New Orleans completed the season sweep on Sunday in a 31-21 victory. Once again, it was the two-headed monster of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara in the backfield – Kamara has been a freaking steal in the 2017 draft and will likely win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. He is the third rookie in NFL history with 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in five straight games, joining Hall of Famers Eric Dickerson and Franco Harris. Kamara also has joined Charley Taylor (1964) and Billy Sims (1980) as the only rookies in NFL history to have at least 600 rushing yards and 600 receiving yards. Kamara is averaging a whopping 7.0 yards per carry, first in the NFL. The Falcons had a three-game winning streak snapped Sunday in a 14-9 home loss to Minnesota. Still, all things being equal, I prefer the home team in these quick turnaround games. Plus, the Falcons (7-5) absolutely need it as they are on the outside of the playoffs looking in.

  • Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
  • Falcons are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Free NFL Pick: Falcons at pick’emBest Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Drew Brees and Matt Ryan have definitely had some shootouts in this rivalry over the years. Both games last year were very high-scoring and won by Atlanta. In his past six games against New Orleans, Ryan has 1,970 passing yards (328.3 per game) with 14 touchdowns and one interception for a 115.4 passer rating. However, the Saints are more run-heavy than they have ever been under Brees. In addition, their defense is much better this year. New Orleans hopes to get rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore, a potential Defensive Rookie of the Year, back this week after missing two games due to injury. The Falcons will get their top cornerback, Desmond Trufant, back after missing Sunday’s loss to the Vikings. He has been released from the concussion protocol. Atlanta ranks eighth in the NFL in total defense, allowing 321 yards per game, and seventh against the pass, and the performance has been consistent. Only New England has topped 400 yards of offense against Atlanta this season.

  • Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Atlanta.
  • Under is 4-0-1 in Saints last 5 Thursday games.
Free NFL Pick: Under 53.5Best Line Offered: JustBet

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