NFL Week 14 Pick: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, October 4, 2017 11:22 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2017 11:22 PM UTC

Here’s guessing the executives at ESPN would like to change this Week 14 game on Monday Night Football as it looks like a mismatch. Survivor Pick: New England.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+11, 47)

The Patriots have won the AFC East 14 of the past 15 years – the only time they didn’t in that stretch was when Tom Brady went down with a season-ending injury in Week 1 in 2008. The Pats might have the division wrapped up well before they take the field Monday night. If the Colts win in Buffalo on Sunday, New England clinches. I rather doubt that happens, so New England can do it with a victory in south Florida. The earliest the Pats could clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed is Week 15. I do wonder if the Patriots will be caught looking past the Dolphins here and toward that huge Week 15 game in Pittsburgh that likely determines the AFC’s top seed. The Pats just routed the Dolphins two weeks ago, 35-17. Tom Brady threw four TD passes, two to Ron Gronkowski. It was New England’s third straight win in the series. Miami’s QB that day was Matt Moore, who was picked off twice and sacked seven times. Jay Cutler is back healthy now. I’m taking all these points because it’s a possible look-ahead game and the Patriots had lost three straight in Miami before winning there last year.

  • Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Miami.
  • Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Free NFL Pick: Dolphins +11Best Line Offered: The Greek

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Another reason I like Miami to cover is that it won’t have to worry about Gronkowski. The Pro Bowler was suspended one game by the NFL without pay for his late hit on defenseless Buffalo Bills cornerback Tre'Davious White in Sunday's 23-3 victory. Frankly, Gronk is lucky it wasn’t multiple games as it was a complete cheap shot. It’s the first-ever suspension for Gronk. He was called for four penalties against the Bills in offensive pass interference, false start, holding and unnecessary roughness and clearly allowed his frustrations to get the best of him. The Pats will rely more heavily on No. 2 tight end Dwayne Allen, just as they did on Oct. 5 against Tampa Bay, which was the only game Gronkowski didn't play this season (thigh injury). Miami ended a five-game losing streak Sunday in a 35-9 win over a sinking Broncos team. Miami scored two safeties in a game for the first time in franchise history and had a defensive touchdown. Cutler went 18 for 31 for 235 yards and two scores in his return from a concussion but threw two interceptions.

  • Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
  • Over is 7-0 in Dolphins last 7 games overall.
Free NFL Pick: Over 47Best Line Offered: Youwager

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