We split another pair of NFL prop picks to move our weekly record to 2-2 and our season winning percentage stays at around 55 percent (69-57-2). Monday’s game to close out Week 14 is a big one and Bovada has some NFL odds that are just too good to pass up.
Ravens O/U 17.5 Points Scored
It’s hard to judge the Ravens off their game last week where they finally put it all together on offense and dropped 38 points on the Dolphins. Miami is far from the challenge the Patriots create for Baltimore on both sides of the ball, but if the Ravens can build off that performance they are surely going to score more than 17 points in this one.
The Patriots’ defense has been very strong, but lately they have been able to hide their deficiencies in their secondary against some very bad passing offenses. Three of their last six games have come against the Rams, 49ers and Bills, teams that leave a lot to be desired at quarterback.
However, the Pats' other three games in that stretch against the Jets, Seahawks and Steelers tell a better story. Those three teams averaged 299 passing yards per game against this defense, and I think Joe Flacco and Co. can do some similar things Monday.
With tight end Dennis Pitta back and playing at a high level, Flacco suddenly has a bevy of targets to throw the ball to. Mike Wallace and Steve Smith are going to be tough covers for the Patriots’ corners. Plus, the Ravens still can’t run the ball, so I see a game where Baltimore puts the ball in the air a lot. Take the 'over' because of this.
NFL Free Pick: 'Over' 17.5 (-145)
Best Lines Offered Both Props: Bovada
James White O/U 25.5 Receiving Yards
White, a running back, has played a big role for the Patriots this season, but with Dion Lewis getting healthier and the Patriots’ passing game starting to feature him more and White less, it might be time to take the 'under' with White’s receiving yards
Over the last three weeks since Lewis has been back, White’s production has started to trend downward. He went from 63 receiving yards to 22 and then 18 last week, while Lewis has seen his target share increase in the passing game.
In his first game back, Lewis got five targets, then seven and then five last week, the same amount as White. If Lewis is slowly taking back his role, it’s time to take the 'under' with White’s receiving yards in this one. Lewis should continue to see work against this stout Ravens defense and if the Patriots get out to a lead, don’t expect much of White in the passing game.