NFL Week 14: Expert Final Thoughts: Oakland Raiders At Kansas City Chiefs

Derek Carr

Wednesday, December 7, 2016 2:46 PM GMT

Once a classic AFL matchup between two teams that mattered, the modern NFL Raiders-Chiefs rivalry in the AFC West finally has some real meaning again as two of the strongest teams in the AFC bang heads Thursday in a huge Week 14 game for both. NFL season picks record: 73-52-3.

Oakland Raiders At Kansas City Chiefs

Derek Carr and the refurbished Raiders (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS, 345 PS-299 PA) head two time zones east to Kansas City (Cloudy, Wind Chill 12°) to face Eric Berry and the Chiefs (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS, 281 PS-242 PA) on Thursday night in the Week 14 opener and huge AFC West matchup. Current NFL odds find the Chiefs 3- to 3½-point favorites with the total at 45½ to 46½. The money line odds have Kansas City -180 with Oakland +160.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Chiefs 3½-point (Even) favorites in its NFL Week 14 Advanced Line, while in its 2016 Games of the Year it opened KC as a 4-point favorite for this high-profile game which will be live streamed on Twitter.

 

Series Trends, Side, Totals, TNF Trends

Thursday Night Football trends show Oakland 2-5 ATS on the Road and 2-4 ATS as an Underdog on Thursday nights, while Kansas City is 5-5 SU/ATS, 4-2 as Favorites but 2-5 ATS L7 Thursdays overall (Day/night).

 

The Raiders are 5-0 SU/ATS Road, 11-1 ATS L12 Road games but 17-37-1 ATS L55 in December (31.5%), while the Over is 36-13-2 L51 Raiders games after SU Win and 19-7-2 L28 Oakland games on Grass. Kansas City is a suspect 1-7 ATS L8 at Home, 1-5 ATS L6 Week 14 games, 0-6 ATS L6 after Allowing 350+ Total Yards Previous Game and 1-8 ATS L8 after ATS Win. The Road team is 21-6 ATS L27 in this classic AFC West rivalry.

 

Final Thoughts

The Raiders have W6 straight, their last Loss was at Home to these Chiefs, are unbeaten on the Road and can clinch a Playoff berth with a Win and either Dolphins or Broncos Loss on Sunday. But this is the hardest place for the Raiders to play and Alex Smith (32-31-3 ATS at Home) and Kansas City can ill afford a Loss in this spot.

 

The Raiders' potent Offense (28.8 ppg, #3 NFL) has proven it can overcome lapses from the Defense or Penalties (#1 NFL, 112), primarily because of Carr’s (15-6 ATS on Road) maturation and his cache of well-known skill guys like Latavius Murray, Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper -- and a handful of unheralded, go-to guys in Seth Roberts and Clive Walford -- who’ve combined for 58 Receptions and 7 TDs, averaging 10.7 ypc. Don't forget about Rookie RBs Jalen Richard (5.8 ypc) and DeAndre Washington. The Site and Cold won’t matter here because Oakland is now deep and truly believes.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Raiders 27, Chiefs 20

NFL Free Pick: Raiders +160

Best Line Offered: BookMaker

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