We finished off Monday Night Football in Week 12 splitting a pair of chalky NFL prop picks, but even though we didn’t quite make our money back Monday, I am ready to remedy that with a few more plays here on Thursday’s NFL odds. Season props record: 66-50-2.
Stefon Diggs O/U 72.5 Receiving Yards
Diggs was out for the Vikings on Thanksgiving, but he looks to be ready to play against the Cowboys. Minnesota is going to need him. The Cowboys project to be out in front for most of the game in this one, so the Vikings have to have Sam Bradford’s No. 1 target out there.
Bradford gets a bad rep for his play, but lately he has been slinging the ball around with greater efficiency. Other than a bad game against the Cardinals two weeks ago, Bradford is completing nearly 80 percent of his passes against the Lions twice and the Redskins, and while the Cowboys’ pass defense isn’t bad it isn’t that great.
Plus, the Cowboys have given up a ton of yards to receivers this season. Part of that is playing with the lead so much, but it can’t be ignored that they have allowed nearly 2,000 yards to opposing receivers this season. In their past three games, the Cowboys have allowed an average of 227 yards per game to opposing wide receivers. Diggs was getting 12 to 15 targets per game in the three leading up to the one before getting hurt, so with him healthy, expect him to get back to that number and cash the 'over' tonight.
NFL Free Pick: 'Over' 72.5 (-125)
Best Line Offered Both Props: Bovada
Vikings O/U 1.5 Field Goals
We cashed the 'over' on a field goal prop on Monday, and I am going in the same direction for the Vikings’ field goal prop here. Yes, the Cowboys have done pretty well in limiting field goals to their opponents, mostly because their opponents are so far behind that a field goal normally won’t help them.
The Vikings changed kickers a few weeks ago, releasing Blair Walsh as he had made only 12 of his 15 attempts this season and had missed four extra points. Kai Forbath has been solid in Walsh's place the past two weeks, making 3 of 3 field-goal tries, albeit with a long of just 30.
Still, the Vikings' offense is struggling and thus Forbath should get at least a few tries. Kicking in that dome only helps his chances with no weather worries.
NFL Free Pick: 'Over' 1.5 (-150)