NFL Week 13 Picks: Wise Guy Plays & Public Leans

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, November 29, 2014 5:03 PM GMT

Saturday, Nov. 29, 2014 5:03 PM GMT

It will come as no surprise that the public leans got buried last week as the Packers, Texans and Cowboys, all favored in last week's NFL odds, proved to be square plays that flamed.  Once again we try to scout the sharp sides and the public leans in the NFL's Week 13.

Redskins vs. Colts (-8 to -10 ½)
Much to my chagrin Washington covered the number as nine-point road dogs in NFL odds in San Francisco last Sunday. They hung tough against a Niners team that has been underwhelming this season and opened up this week at about the same number the NFL odds makers hung on them in Week 12. 

However, it appears that there is more than just public money riding on Andrew Luck's coattails.This line has flat out spiked and when a rather innocuous number like 8 spirals upwards to over the critical number of 10 then I'm declaring that there is some sharp action going on in addition to the squares who have an insatiable appetite for big favorites. Reports from Vegas are that the Colts are attracting a mind numbing 86% of the bets being wagered on this game.That signals to me that this is more than just a case of the squares getting froggy.

NFL Pick:  Sharps and Public on the Colts.

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Browns vs. Bills (Pick to -3 ½)
When you see the NFL odds climb over three points and through the most critical number of three then there's something going on. To be fair, only the earliest of early birds got the Bills at a pick but to see it spike as sharply as it has leads me to believe that there's sharp action on Buffalo.This is not a sexy matchup, nor do the Bills engender the kind of public passion that often sees the NFL odds on teams like the Patriots, Broncos, Packers and Seahawks rise to unreasonable heights. 

Let's not forget that the Browns are coming off a game road win in Atlanta while the Bills throttled the hapless Jets on a neutral site.  Perhaps the NFL odds makers should have opened the Bills at -3 but hindsight is 20/20 and now all the books who took action on Buffy at below three are cursing.  Shops like 5Dimes.com and Pinnacle.com are dealing the NFL odds on this one at Bills-3 ½ which could get them in trouble if this game were to land on three with Buffalo the victor.

NFL Pick:  Sharps on Bills

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Giants (-1 ½ to -3) vs. Jaguars
The Giants had their Super Bowl last Sunday when they gave the Cowboys all they could handle yet fell 31-28 but did manage an ATS winner for all those who included Big Blue as a four-point home dog in their NFL picks. You would think that a road game against arguably (who's arguing this anyway?) the worst team in the league would be a surefire trap game for Coughlin's Giants. But not Joe Q and his band of merry squares. Oh no, they just love to fade the Jags and the line reflects just that. Notice how this number has not surpassed the magic three?  That's a clear indication the sharps want no part of this and may in fact come back closer to kickoff with a play on Jacksonville at a premium number. 

NFL Pick:  Public on Giants


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Dolphins (-4 ½ to -7) vs. Jets
For the luvva gawd I know the Jets are putrid but are the Fish truly deserving of being a touchdown favorite over anyone?  Well that's where the public has pushed this number.  All the squares are dwelling on Miami's gritty performance at Mile High where they almost pulled the upset over the Broncos. However, they did fatten the wallets of those who included them in their NFL picks as they were getting a six-point head start and fell 39-36, good for the ATS cover.

The Jets on the other hand got pounded by their divisional rivals the Buffalo Bills on a neutral site 38-3 and that's all the public needs to know.  In their minds one team looked great in defeat while the other looked hopeless.The Fish may indeed be the right side but this reeks of public money.

NFL Pick:  Public on Dolphins

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