NFL Week 13 Pick: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, September 28, 2017 11:00 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 28, 2017 11:00 PM UTC

This AFC East rivalry hasn’t been much of one since Tom Brady became New England’s starter as the Patriots have utterly dominated the Bills. Survivor Pick: New England.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 49)

The Patriots did actually lose at home to the Bills early last year, but that’s entirely misleading. Buffalo won 16-0 with Jacoby Brissett (now with Colts) as the New England QB. With Tom Brady back, the Pats rolled to a 41-25 victory in Buffalo later in the season. Brady tied an NFL record for wins against one team by improving 26-3 against Buffalo. That’s tied with Brett Favre, who went 26-9 against Detroit. New England has won seven straight and at 9-2 is battling Pittsburgh for the top seed in the AFC – they play in a few weeks in the Steel City. Buffalo of course has the longest playoff drought in the NFL but is in the wild-card chase at 6-5. Week 12 was full of favorites not just winning but covering. The Bills pulled off probably the biggest upset with a 16-10 victory at sliding Kansas City. It was the Bills' first wire-to-wire win in a road game outside their division since a 24–14 win at Cleveland in 2012. Tyrod Taylor was back as the starting quarterback after being benched the week before in a huge mistake by Sean McDermott. Taylor wasn’t exactly gangbusters vs. the Chiefs but didn’t make any big mistakes. He already has been named this week’s starter to no surprise.

  • Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Buffalo.
  • Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.
Free NFL Pick: Patriots -7 (buy down from 7.5)Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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Carson Wentz is probably going to win his first NFL MVP Award, but it’s truly remarkable what Brady is doing at age 40. In Sunday’s 35-17 win over Miami, Brady had four touchdown passes, two to Rob Gronkowski. Brady has 26 touchdown passes this season, the most by a quarterback in a single season at the age of 40 or older. ​It was Brady’s 27th career games with at least four touchdown passes and one or fewer interceptions, surpassing Peyton Manning (26) for the second-most in NFL history. Only the Saints’ Drew Brees (28) has more such games. Buffalo is likely to be without big trade acquisition and receiver Kelvin Benjamin again. He is dealing with a torn meniscus, yet the Bills say he’s day-to-day. Benjamin has barely played for Buffalo since coming over from Carolina. Without Benjamin, the Bills started Deonte Thompson and rookie Zay Jones against Kansas City. Jones led Bills wide receivers with three catches for 33 yards and a TD vs. Kansas City.

  • Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Buffalo.
  • Over is 16-5 in Bills last 21 home games.
Free NFL Pick: Over 49Best Line Offered: JustBet

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