NFL Week 13: Largest Totals & Picks

Matthew Jordan

Saturday, November 29, 2014 4:07 PM GMT

Unsatisfying 1-2 Week 12 on the three games with the largest totals, hitting on the Ravens-Saints 'over' 50 points on Monday night but missing 'over' in Jaguars-Colts and Packers Vikings. Here are the Pinnacle highest Week 13 totals on NFL odds.

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (total 58 at sportsbooks)
Absolutely no surprise this has the highest total on NFL odds of Week 13 and in fact ties the highest of the season, which was two weeks ago when the Patriots routed the Colts in Indianapolis 42-20. Sportsbooks list the Packers and Patriots as the two Super Bowl favorites, and Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are your MVP favorites right now. Can you believe this is the first time the two future Hall of Famers have ever started a game against one another? The Packers and Patriots last played in 2010 and it was the one regular-season game that Super Bowl season for Green Bay that Rodgers missed. The most recent meeting before that, Brett Favre was still Green Bay's starter. The Patriots are No. 1 in the NFL in averaging 32.5 points with Green Bay right behind at 32.2. New England has hit 30 seven times and is 7-0. Green Bay has done so six times and is 6-0. The Pack have scored 50 twice, including their past two home games, while New England reached 50 once. Each side leads its respective conference in points differential. The fewest Green  Bay has scored at home is 31. Next fewest: 38. It's the first time the Packers have registered at least 30 points in each of their first five home games. You always have to check the weather forecast at Lambeau. Looks fairly nice for this time of year, temperatures in the low 30s with no chance of precipitation at kickoff. It is a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, so those temperatures will drop quickly once the sun goes down.

NFL free pick: 'Over' at BetOnline. It is 7-1 in Green Bay's past eight overall and 5-0 in all five at home. The 'over' is also 7-1 in the Patriots' past eight overall.

 

New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers (total 54.5 on NFL odds)
Normally when you see a large total in a game involving New Orleans it's because of the high-powered Saints. They are OK offensively this year but not quite like the past several seasons under Drew Brees. Keep this in mind before you make your NFL pick. New Orleans is No. 2 in total offense and No. 7 in scoring (26.2 points per game). Brees is on pace for another 5,000-yard season and is third in the NFL in passing yards while leading it with a 70.3 completion percentage. However, he also has thrown 11 interceptions. Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger,  meanwhile, has been ridiculous of late at home. Did they put a roof over Heinz Field that I don't know about? In the Steelers' last home game, a 43-23 Week 9 win over Baltimore, Big Ben set an NFL record by becoming the first player with consecutive games of six touchdown passes. That's because the week before he threw for a career-high 522 yards and six scores in a 51-34 win over the Colts. Roethlisberger is averaging 361.2 passing yards at home compared to 244 on the road. The Steelers have scored 30 in all but one home game. The Saints aren't exactly a good defensive team either. Forecast here is mid-50s with 40 percent chance of showers.

NFL free pick:  'Over.' It is 5-0 in all five Steelers home games and 4-1 in the Saints' past five on the road.

 

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (total 49.5 on NFL betting lines)
Technically Redskins-Colts has the third-highest total, but I previewed that game earlier this week at SBR (recommended 'over') and it was also on the Week 13 highest spreads story. So it's the Sunday night matchup of Broncos-Chiefs. If Denver wins, the AFC West is all but over, but a loss opens things up to the Chiefs and possibly Chargers. Peyton Manning is 12-1 in his career vs. the Chiefs. He is having another MVP-caliber season but has been a different guy on the road, which is where all three Denver losses have been. Manning is completing 64.1 percent on the road with 13 TDs, seven picks and a rating of 91.5. By comparison, he has a rating of 130.4 at home with 21 scores and only two picks. The Broncos have been held to 21 points or fewer in three of five road games. The Chiefs have the NFL's No. 1 pass defense and are among the sack leaders. They want to control the ball and eat clock. It worked pretty well in Week 2, a 24-17 loss in Denver. K.C. hasn't allowed more than 26 points in a game yet and those 26 were in Week 1. Also, the Chiefs had a bit of extra time to prepare as they last played on Thursday in Week 12, a shocking 24-20 loss at Oakland in a huge trap game. Mid-30s at kickoff.

NFL free pick:  'Under' at 5Dimes. It has hit in six of the past eight meetings.