We are approaching the latter third of the NFL season and with that in mind, I have to cross over zero for a couple of my teasers this week, and after going 1-1-1 last week, it’s time we jump back on the profit train.
Lions & Chiefs
Detroit failed us last week, and NFL odds had them at +5, they could have easily covered it after getting a big lead. But bad decisions and bad secondary play cost them the win and a cover in our prop odds. However this week they welcome in the Bucs, and I see them righting the ship this week. Detroit’s run defense has been very good over the last four weeks, and one week after his benching, I think Reggie Bush is due for a big game.
The Bucs are good against the run, but they also give up a lot of yards to tail backs through the air. They rank in the bottom half of the league in receiving yards allowed to running backs, and they have given up three touchdowns through the air to backs this season, which is surprisingly the 4th most in the NFL. If Bush is doing big things, you know Calvin Johnson is also going to get his in this game. I’m teasing the Lions down from -9 to -3.
The Chiefs head back home this week to welcome in the Chargers, and against San Diego’s bad defense, I think the Chiefs will have a great game here. While teasing the Chargers up to +10 is tempting, I think a plain bet on the Chiefs to win is safer, even though we cross zero. The Chiefs are -4 favorites in the NFL Odds, which would mean they are +2 in a 6-point teaser. I see the home team as an excellent add to the Lions at home as well.
My Pick: 2-team teaser Lions -3 & Chiefs +2
Panthers & Ravens
Carolina is giving up a league low 13.5 points per game, and I doubt even heading into Miami is going to change that. Carolina has two impressive wins in a row heading to this game, and with that defense, Cam Newton finally doesn’t have to do everything. Miami’s defense has given up the third most rushing yards this season, and despite Miami being good against the pass, the Panthers don’t need to throw the ball to win here, even on the road. Their defense should take care of any mistakes from the offense, because Miami has given up 41 sacks this season, which leads the NFL. Even though they will likely be without Charles Johnson, whose 8.5 sacks is currently top 10 in the NFL, I think Carolina can weather the storm. Their NFL Odds for a 6-point teaser is +2.
The Ravens are at home this week against the Jets, and even though this could be a very defensive game, I still like the home team to win outright. Although we once again have to cross zero, these NFL picks are potentially valuable. The Jets will not be able to move the ball very much on the road against Baltimore’s defense, who have one of the few guys that have more sacks that Johnson this season, Terrell Suggs. Even though it’s likely to be a defensive game, I’m taking the home team to prevail.
My Pick: 2-team teaser Panthers +2 & Ravens +3