For my NFL Premium Parlay for Week 12, I took a 2-teamer, one side and one total.
Joe Duffy from OffshoreInsiders.com, who is 20-10 ATS this year in his NFL videos with us, recommended the Over 43.5 in the Jacksonville/Houston game, which I thought was a curious pick at the time. But then Brent from BetDSI identified that play as one he did take sharp action on, at 42.5.
So, my interest was piqued with that play this week, but I ultimately decided against including it, not wanting to take that high of a total in a game involving Jacksonville.
The rest of the card has not taken much sharp action as yet, according to Brent. I thought we might hear about some sharp action on a number of underdogs such as Miami, Jacksonville, San Diego, or the Jets, which was a play recommended with great analysis by Al McMordie of BigAl.com.
But none of those sides turned out to have taken sharp action yet, according to Brent. Minnesota did take a bit, as well as New England, which was a side that I almost included this week.
I previewed the Denver/New England game with Scott Kellen from SixthSenseSports.com, and he gave the opinion that the Pats as a home dog have value. I suspected that the Broncos would be a big public side this week, which was confirmed by Brent, and again, the sharp action agrees with Kellen on New England.
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But in the end, I decided to go with just two picks. I took a side in the Steelers/Browns game, which I previewed with Scott Kellen as well, and Scott’s pick on that game agreed with my own initial analysis.
And then for my second sports pick I went with the total in the Tennessee/Oakland game, based on my own handicapping.