NFL Week 12 Picks: Wise Guy Plays & Public Leans

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, November 22, 2014 6:50 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 22, 2014 6:50 PM UTC

Last week results were mixed with Packers crushing it while the Chargers flamed. Find which fluctuations in the NFL odds have caught the attention of squares and sharps alike in Week 12.

Packers (-7 ½ to 9 ½) vs. Vikings
While I realize the NFL odds have jumped two points on this game in some offshore books, it should be noted that there are more than a few oddsmakers who are hanging the Packers at -8 ½ out there. In addition, once the oddsmakers have established a favorite at 7 ½ then anything above that is usually immaterial, at least until you hit the sometimes magic number of 10 on which enough games fall to make it a semi-critical number. As of this late writing that number has failed to appear therefore I am inclined to believe this is a manifestation of the public's infatuation with the juggernaut that is now the Green Bay Packers. Always remember boys and girls that the public never saw a heavy road favorite they didn't love while the sharps understand that even a blind dog will bite if he's guarding his own turf. Caveat Emptor on those sending it in on the visiting chalk.

Free NFL Pick: Public Lean on the Packers

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Bengals vs. Texans (Pick to -1 ½)
Certainly not a huge move here and even less if you consider where this number has moved from and to. Because there are not a great deal of one point games in the NFL and even less ties I highly doubt the NFL odds will come into effect here. This game is simply a question of which team is better and apparently the public is siding with JJ Watt and the boys. If you look at what both teams have done recently then you may be inclined to bet the Bengals who have won three of their last four. However, their anemic showings against the Browns, Colts and Patriots are obviously lingering in the recesses of bettors minds. I'm not sure there is a good side on this game and if you were inclined to pass on this one before the Texans became favorites then your opinion has not changed.

Free NFL Pick: Public Lean on the Texans

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Cardinals vs. Seahawks (-5 ½ to 7 ½)
You would think the white hot Cardinals would be a sexy underdog but the public isn't buying it even thought he Redbirds have won and covered the number in NFL odds over their past six games and are 9-1 overall and 8-2 ATS. But when you're traveling into the lion's den of the defending Super Bowl champions then it becomes another story entirely. Let's face it, the public knows the Cardinals have a damn good defense but they are not convinced they have the offense to propel them to the Promised Land. Meanwhile the Seahawks have looked vulnerable at times this season but everyone knows what they are capable of and are waiting for them to awake from their ATS funk where they are 4-6 in NFL odds this season.

Free NFL Pick: Public Lean on the Seahawks

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Cowboys (-2 ½ to 4) vs. Giants
This game smacks of public money being driven to the visiting favorite (what else?). The Boyz opened up as 2 ½ point road faves but then Joe Q. Public got a gander at the line and said "I'm gonna pound the Cowboys!" and then promptly directed a whopping $20 on Dallas through the offshore sportsbook of his choice. Now multiply Joe Q. Public by about 10,000 friends just like him and you have the line moving through the critical number of three and to another critical number of four. I wouldn't be surprised with this NFL pick that the betting odds market do surpass the four and hit 4 ½ then you will see the sharps angling to take a piece on the home dog Giants.

Free NFL Pick: Public Lean on the Cowboys

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