With two games down and 14 to go for this holiday weekend, we explore which contests might have the best value for the rest of your professional football weekend. For us doing this, save us one piece of leftover pie, OK?
Let’s be honest, the best value bet of the Thanksgiving weekend was the OVER on food and drink consumed on Thursday. Now we move ahead to find what could work against the NFL odds.
While opinions may vary, this writer feels this is the hardest week of the season since we popped at the top of this 2020 football campaign. The lines seem extremely sharp and there hasn’t been a great deal of movement (as of Black Friday morning), but that could change as we get closer to Sunday with two big days of college football first.
One play that would appear to have value is Indianapolis at -3 over Tennessee. We will not be giving that one out, however, because in our previous article we took the Titans at +4 and it would be unprofessional to give out both sides.
Carolina Panthers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, November 29, 2020 – 1:00 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
On Tuesday, Minnesota was up to -4.5 and in truth, Carolina was starting to look like they might be worth some action if we could find maybe an even better number at any of the top betting sites like BetOnline. Instead of going up, the point spread went the other way and the Vikings were shipped to -3.5.
This happened because of a school of thought that the Panthers fine group of pass-catchers could and would expose a Minnesota pass defense that ranks 24th. The other aspect is that many bettors making NFL picks have a tendency to overreact to what just happened and that was Carolina winning and the Vikings falling at home to a flawed Dallas outfit.
Still, one has to consider Minny was on a 3-0 SU and ATS spurt and .500 or less teams that pull that off are notorious bad bets in their next contest. Look for the Vikes to regroup and play much better and expose the flaws in the Panthers run defense. We prefer -3 over -3.5 for sure, but beggars can’t be choosy.
New Orleans Saints vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, November 29, 2020 - 4:05 PM ET – Empower Field
The value bet in this game looks like it's on New Orleans. But hold your horses (pun intended) and snag that rosary from the Saints and take another look at the Broncos.
New Orleans lands at a mile high on a seven-game winning streak. They do so without their number one signal caller. Granted, that has not been close to a problem for Sean Payton’s crew as they are 6-0 SU and ATS with a backup under center. Yet, the previous five winners utilized experienced quarterbacks and Taysom Hill has one start under his belt and none on the road.
This Denver defense is not in the same mountain range of the one that captured a Super Bowl a few years back. That doesn’t mean they are devoid of talent; they just need for the offense to not turn the ball over and place them in bad spots.
This contest is out of conference for New Orleans and it is the middle portion of a division sandwich, which could lead to a lack of focus. In the Saints past six tries, they dropped three straight ATS and covered three in a row. Here's to hoping for +6.5 come game day, but +6 still works for us.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, November 29, 2020 - 4:25 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
This is not a decisive play but one that offers value on the hook with Tampa Bay at +3.5. The Buccaneers shortcomings have them getting exposed on each side of the line of scrimmage. Everyone is talking about Tom Brady getting old, but it is his coach that is making matters worse. Bruce Arians likes to throw the ball down the field. That’s fine if you have a Top 10 running game with an offensive line that can really pass block. The Bucs have neither.
Though Brady would have particular games where he would throw 40-50 times, the passes were short and on routes which would lead to run after the catch, while still taking deep shots. That’s not what’s happening in west Florida.
While nobody can run on Tampa Bay’s defense, you can pass on them and look who’s next, Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City. Though this has the makings of a rollover, that Brady fellow has a great deal of pride and his offense can still score and we will not be shocked if this ends up as a three-point outcome. A nice slice of value.