NFL Week 12 Picks: Good Bets on Bad Teams

Nila Amerova

Friday, November 22, 2013 4:09 PM GMT

NFL week 12 hits the books with a veritable buffet of games to spot and we’re back again to sift through the lot in an effort to find angles for profit with good bets on bad teams. 

Jacksonville Jaguars +350 (+10.0 -110) vs. Houston Texans -40 (-10.0 -110)

Analysis: Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans are a putrid 2-7-0 against the spread this season, which means more likely than not you’ve been burned backing them on the spread. So what can we expect when they collide in week 12 NFL betting? Clearly, something is going to give. Which will it be though?

It’s a tossup when two equally bad teams meet. On a purely superficial level, the Jaguars are just plain bad with little to recommend them from top to bottom. The Texans on the other hand are a bit of a head scratcher when they had such a good season last year. They should be better than they are but they aren’t for some reason. Still, this is a winnable match for them you have to think and as such they should take the straight up win. The spread however might be just too much for them to cover (or is it?). We think so at least so we’re recommending the Jaguars to cover as your NFL pick. (Just don’t bet the farm on it).

NFL Pick: Texans to win straight up; Jaguars to cover

[gameodds]16/227034/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Dallas Cowboys +115 (+2.5 -110) vs. NY Giants -135 (-2.5 -110)

It’s debatable which of these two teams should be considered good and which bad. Or is it a case of bad against bad when looking at overall records on the season? Or maybe it is a case of a good-bad team vs. a bad-good team? Hmmm. Dilemma, dilemma.

Regardless, we have a rather interesting clash before us that sportsbooks would have you believe will be a very close game with a 2.5-spread attached to it. The Cowboys (5-5, 1-4 away) that just got routed by New Orleans Saints 49-17?  Those Cowboys that continue to be atrocious on the road are expected to keep it close. Really? Care to bet on it?

So the Giants (4-6, 3-2 home) aren’t exactly up to their lofty standards. But after stuttering out of the gates on six straight losses, didn’t they turn their season around with four straight wins? They just divinely crushed the Green Bay Packers 27-13. Now they are on the verge of a fifth straight win and with momentum clearly on their side one has to believe they are the savvy NFL pick. This is just too easy.

NFL Pick: Giants to win straight up and cover

[gameodds]16/227041/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

San Francisco 49ers -270 (-6.0 -110) vs. Washington Redskins +220 (+6.0 -110)

According to the stats the 49ers aren’t that great this season and particularly QB ratings have Colin Kaepernick hovering way below expectations. He’s a far cry from his bowl output last year, a frustrating fact that has earned the 49ers a spot in this instalment of our regular good bets on bad teams. That and the fact that the 49ers have lost two in a row and are wholly off pace with a 6-4-0 mark in the NFC West Division that is dominated by Seattle right now with a 10-1-0 record.

Fortunately, for 49ers fans, the Redskins (3-7, 2-2 home) are even worse across the board and as such they can be quietly confident of taking the road win here, which is on offer at -270 NFL odds at Bet365. The Redskins did win their last two home games but they licking their wounds right now after back-to-back defeats on the road to Minnesota and Philadelphia. Ripe for the taking if Kaepernick and Co can rise to the occasion. The question is though is a 6-point spread too many points for them to cover seeing the way they have been playing recently. Against anybody else it may be. Seeing as they are taking on the Redskins, whose offense is as exciting as peeling potato skins, it just might be right. 

NFL Picks: San Francisco to win straight up and cover

[gameodds]16/227043/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]