NFL Week 12 Pick: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, September 27, 2017 11:17 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 27, 2017 11:17 PM UTC

Will it be Jay Cutler or Matt Moore for Miami on Sunday at New England? And will it really matter? Probably not. Survivor Pick: New England.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-17, 47.5)

And we have our biggest spread of the season. Should it close at least at 17, it will be the NFL’s largest since the Patriots were -17 last Christmas Eve and covered against the Jets. This also would be just the 13th game with spread of 17 points or more since 2003. I can’t see a scenario where there’s a bigger number this year. The Patriots’ easiest game left would be Week 17 at home vs. the Jets, who aren’t all that bad. Plus, the Patriots may have nothing to play for by then. New England remains the favorite at SBR’s top-rated sportsbooks to repeat as Super Bowl champion. The 9-1 Eagles are the second-favorites. Philly is -14 this week at home vs. Chicago and won’t face a worse team so that will be the biggest it will be favored in 2017. The Dolphins have actually covered their past three as a double-digit dog: Back on Oct. 15 as a 14-point dog in Atlanta (2017 Miami victory), Sept. 11, 2016, in Seattle at +10.5 (Seahawks won 12-10) and Jan. 3, 2016 vs. New England at +10 (Dolphins won 20-10). Miami has lost its past eight at New England. This will be nine, but I’m taking 17 points every day of the week in the NFL.

  • Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 12.
  • Patriots are just 2-3 ATS at home this season.
Free NFL Pick: Dolphins +17Best Line Offered: Bovada

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Miami lost its fourth straight Sunday, 30-20 at home to Tampa Bay. Jay Cutler reverted to being, well, Jay Cutler, completed 6 of 12 for 83 yards with a TD and three picks before leaving at the end of the first half in the concussion protocol. So it may not be until later in the week where we learn if Cutler will play. Backup Matt Moore was much better and led a comeback so he might steal the job regardless, although the last time Moore started he was terrible in a 40-0 loss in Baltimore. Dolphins head coach Adam Gase said if the offense can clean up its penalties, it will be a tough group to stop. The Fins totaled a whopping 17 penalties vs. the Bucs and turned it over five times. The Fins have been outscored 142-65 in their skid. New England won its sixth straight Sunday by blasting the Raiders 33-8 in Mexico City. The Pats clinched a .500 or better record for the 17th consecutive season, tying the 1957-73 Cleveland Browns for the second-longest streak in NFL history (1965-85 Dallas Cowboys, 21 consecutive seasons). Tom Brady completed 30 of 37 passes (81.1 percent) for 339 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He became only player in NFL history to record a 300-yard passing game in three different countries (USA, United Kingdom and Mexico). Too bad there’s no game planned for Canada in the near future.

  • Over is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 games overall.
  • Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 home games.
Free NFL Pick: Over 47.5Best Line Offered: Heritage

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