NFL Week 12 Pick: Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, September 27, 2017 11:25 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 27, 2017 11:25 PM UTC

It’s two hugely disappointing AFC West teams facing off. The Broncos’ playoff hopes already are gone, while the Raiders’ are on life support. Survivor Pick: Oakland.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-5, 43.5)

If you had given me a bet on an ‘over/under’ combined Broncos & Raiders wins entering Week 12, I would have wagered plenty on, say, over 8. Yet here we are with Oakland, a 12-win playoff team in 2016, at 4-6 and 13th in the AFC. The 3-7 are on a six-game skid and only ahead of the sorry Browns in the AFC standings. Stunning. Lot of news surrounding this game. Denver on Monday fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, and the team will give 2016 first-round pick Paxton Lynch the start at quarterback in his first action of the season. Meanwhile, the Raiders have fired defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. as they try to make a playoff push. So we have a terrible offensive team in Denver against a bad defensive team in Oakland. Where to go? Denver’s last win was 16-10 at home vs. the Raiders in Week 4. Derek Carr was knocked out of that game with an injury and an EJ Manuel pass was intercepted by Denver safety Justin Simmons at the Broncos 8 in the closing minutes. Trevor Siemian was under center for the Broncos and was 16 of 26 for 179 yards with a TD. I’ll simply lean the Raiders here as they are at home and still have some motivation.

  • Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games.
  • Favorite is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Free NFL Pick: Raiders -5Best Line Offered: Bet365

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3193197, "sportsbooksIds":[43,118,139,180,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

At this point, the Broncos might as well see what Lynch offers so they can decide whether to draft a QB again in 2018 or sign a free agent like Kirk Cousins. Lynch, who made two starts in 2016, injured his right shoulder Aug. 26 in a preseason game against the Green Bay Packers and has not played since. Quarterbacks coach Bill Musgrave will serve as the interim offensive coordinator for the remainder of the season. Head coach Vance Joseph said he made the move to "stabilize'' the offense. Expect a game plan heavy on the run to make things simpler for Lynch. Denver ranks 28th in offensive efficiency this season and 30th in touchdown percentage. Norton, meanwhile, will be replaced by John Pagano, who joined the Raiders last offseason as assistant head coach/defense from the Chargers. Oakland has yet to intercept a pass this season and has the No. 27-ranked pass defense in the NFL, giving up 253.2 yards through the air per game.

  • Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 road games.
  • Over is 21-7-1 in Raiders last 29 home games.
Free NFL Pick: Over 43.5Best Line Offered: GT Bets

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3193197, "sportsbooksIds":[1602,1680,139,274,999993], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here