It’s the final evening of Week 12 of the NFL, and we are finally in the home stretch of the regular season. With tonight’s matchup between the 49ers and Redskins, the NFL Odds are pretty sharp after having an extra day to prepare. However there are some great prop odds from Bet365, and I have found two player performance props that I think have great value tonight. Follow along as I release my final prop picks for Week 12!
The first guy I have my eye on tonight is none other than Colin Kaepernick. While he and the 49ers’ offense have struggled over the last four weeks, tonight against the Redskins should solve at least some of those issues. Kaepernick hasn’t topped 200 yards passing in his last four games, but tonight against one of the league’s worst passing defenses, that should change.
The bad play hasn’t been all on Kaepernick in these last four weeks. The 49ers have played some pretty good pass defenses over the last four weeks. Over their last four games, the Niners have played three of the league’s top 10 passing defenses, and over their last two games, they have played two of the top six passing defenses.
Needless to say, the Skins are the worst passing defense the Niners have played since Week 4. Even before the last four games, they played the Texans and Cardinals, two teams with great pass defenses as well.
With the Niners getting healthier at the WR position, and with the Skins being the worst pass defense the Niners have played almost the entire season, I see Kaepernick heading over his passing yards total of 215.5. Kaepernick is being a little undervalued here because of his recent performances, but that should change tonight.
My Pick: Colin Kaepernick OVER 215 ½ passing yards (-115)
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Another guy in this game that should have some value in the prop odds is Alfred Morris, who has a rushing yards total of 88 ½ in the NFL odds tonight. Morris has topped 90 yards rushing in five straight weeks, so the over would seem like the best bet on the surface, however if you dig deep, that is the wrong thought process.
The Skins have played some bad run defenses over their last five games. Even though they are first in the NFL in rushing yards, a lot of that has to do with their schedule over the last few weeks. The Skins have played the Eagles, Bears, Chargers, Vikings and Broncos, five teams with less than average run defenses in their last five games.
This week against the 12th ranked run defense in the NFL, I doubt Morris has a big game. Even at home tonight, I think the Skins will be playing with a score deficit, which would drastically limit Morris’ rushing attempts. Morris isn’t the type of back that can bust off a long run to cash this prop. He is going to need at least 20 carries or more, and I don’t think he will get that much this week. Because he has been so good over the last few weeks, the books are trying to convince us that he can do it against anyone. That is simply not the case. I see Morris falling below 88 ½ rushing yards, which makes the under at -115 very valuable for your NFL picks.
My Pick: Alfred Morris UNDER 88 ½ rushing yards (-115)