NFL Week 12: Identifying Early Sharp Action

Cowboys player Dak Prescott in action

Tuesday, November 22, 2016 6:44 PM GMT

The sharps have pounded some Week 12 games, including the Cowboys-Redskins on Thanksgiving, as well as the Titans at Bears and the Ravens hosting the Bengals on Sunday with Injuries and poor play behind some of the line movement. Let’s look at these three games and offer up a pick in an NFC East showdown in which maybe 60 points will be scored.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys, Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET

Open: Cowboys -6.5 -110, Sunday (BetOnline)

Tuesday Morning: Cowboys -9 -115 (5Dimes)

Heavy sharp and no doubt some public action on the Cowboys -- as well as the 'over,' up to 51 from its opening 49 -- for this Week 12 NFC East Turkey Day showdown from Jerry World. And who’s to blame bettors for wanting to back Dallas (9-1 SU/ATS)? And for some sharps, the rare few who laid the 6.5 at the opening (BetOnline) and at 7, maybe the creation of a middle opportunity (7,8) should it get to 9? Offshore 5Dimes already has it there (Monday), but at that point when the spread gets to 7.5, 8, 8.5 and 9 (in the NFL in this instance), it’s hard to define it “sharp” money with so much true value already sapped like bees gathering pollen.

NFL Free Pick: 'Over' 51

Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Open: Pick'em, Sunday (BetOnline)

Tuesday Morning: Titans -4 -110 (5Dimes)

This game from Soldier Field on Sunday may see Mother Nature (60% chance Rain, 41°) play her part and this matchup is one we recommended taking Tennessee -1 on the Advanced Line Week 12 (SuperBook) last week, so no pick at 3.5. The sharps pounded Tennessee (4-7 ATS, 24-46-5 ATS L75) up to and past the key number 3 and even to 4 already in one book (Heritage). The total was bet down from 44.5 to 43, so the sharps think the weather could be a factor, and the Bears (15.7 ppg, No. 31 NFL) are the only team that hasn't scored 24 points in a game. And the Chicago Tribune reported QB Jay Cutler (shoulder) could be done for the season, so with backup QB Brian Hoyer (arm) hurt and pass-catchers Alshon Jeffery (suspension), Kevin White (ankle) and Zach Miller (foot) all out, Chicago (3-7 ATS) is in dire straits and the days of Coach John Fox (11-15 ATS) in the Windy City could be numbered.

 

 

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Open: Ravens -3 -115, Sunday (BetOnline)

Tuesday Morning: Ravens -4.5 -105 (BetOnline)

This sharp-led line move on Baltimore (1-4 ATS L5 vs CIN) in this matchup Sunday comes from the reality the Bengals (3-6-1 SU) are out of the race and are cut deep by Injuries to WR AJ Green (hamstring) and RB Giovani Bernard (ACL), the latter out for the season. And toss in the fact this team had WR Mohamed Sanu (Falcons) and WR Marvin Jones (Lions) on its roster last year but lose them in free agency, and this is a club deficient in skill-position players on offense and has had trouble scoring (19.9 ppg, tied for No. 25).

 

NFL OVERALL ATS PICKS RECORD: 66-45-2