NFL Week 12 Free Picks of the Day

Steven Suarez

Sunday, November 24, 2013 2:42 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 24, 2013 2:42 PM UTC

As kickoff for Week 12 rapidly approaches, we've come up with two more NFL picks that we like the look of.

Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins

The Panthers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, having won six straight games, including consecutive wins over San Francisco (10-9) and New England (24-20).

They enter today's road game in Miami as 4.5-point favorites at the top NFL betting sites, with Carolina at 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS and the Dolphins sitting at 5-5 SU and 5-5 ATS.

At first glance, it was hard not to like Carolina in this situation, but Miami does have the tendency to show up when least expected. The Dolphins are a tricky team to get a read on, but they have looked pretty good at home, beating San Diego (20-16) and Cincinnati (22-20) over the last few weeks.

So what's the best course of action with our sports pick?

We believe the real value is on the game's total, as we're thinking the UNDER is the way to go.

The main reason we like this pick is because of how dominant Carolina's defense has looked lately. They're ranked third in total defense, thanks to a balanced effort against the run (84.5 YPG allowed, #3) and versus the pass (209.5 YPG allowed, #5). Meanwhile, the Dolphins haven't been too shabby defensively lately, allowing 22 or less points in three straight games.

Neither of these offenses impress us much. Carolina is #22 in total offense and Miami can be found way down at #31 in that category. We see a low-scoring final in this afternoon's matchup at Sun Life Stadium.

Free Pick: UNDER 41


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

With a combined three wins, the Texans and Jaguars square off at Reliant Stadium. Current NFL odds show Houston favored by as many as 10 points, while the O/U is at either 43.5 or 44 points.

Obviously it's been a disaster of a season for both franchises, and that's translated over to the ATS arena, where both teams are a very poor 2-8 against the spread.

Even though this is a lot of points to lay, we do think this is the week everything comes together for the Texans.

For one, Case Keenum is the starter and after last week's bizarre benching, he should feel much more at ease having a full a week to prepare as the main guy. Keenum has a much better connection with Andre Johnson and his ability to escape pressure is also a plus.

Where as the Jaguars rank #32 in total offense and #29 in total defense, the Texans are #8 in total offense and #1 in total defense. Clearly we shouldn't read too much into those statistics, considering Houston hasn't been able to translate that into wins, but it still does tell us there's a gap between these two teams.

These AFC South foes haven't faced each other yet in 2013, but the Texans have won five straight in the series, while going 3-1-1 against the spread in those meetings.

Looking closer, we see every single one of Jacksonville's losses this season has come by double digits. We think there will be more of the same and will recommend a big Houston win in Week 12.

Free Pick: Texans -10

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