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NFL Week 12 ATS Best Picks: Against the Spread Predictions

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NFL Week 12 ATS Best Picks: Against the Spread Predictions

Indianapolis Colts (6-4-0) vs Houston Texans (6-4-0)

Thursday, November 21, 2019, 8:20 PM EST

NRG Stadium, Houston. TV Broadcast: FOX/ NFL

Whoever wins this game will rule the roost in the AFC South. The importance of the win in this game can’t be understated as such, and NFL bettors can expect both teams to be up for this AFC South showdown on Thursday Night Football.

It’s a short week for the Texans. Just what the doctor ordered after the humiliation they suffered against the Ravens in week 11. A win here would put the forgettable outing firmly in the rear-view mirror.

Obviously, it’s a short week for the Colts as well. However, it might not play to their advantage as the Colts are the epitome of the walking wounded with some notable names on the injury list. The biggest has to be Marlon Mack, who is out with a broken hand.

The Colts can’t be underestimated nonetheless. Indianapolis has the leg up in the standings on account of the head-to-head edge. The Texans are 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS at home. As well, the Texans are a perfect 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS after a loss this season. Colts are 2-1-1 ATS on the road this season.

By all accounts, this is expected to be a close game that could come down to the wire. This makes it a right tossup for week 12 NFL picks. Push comes to shove the Texans should win, but the Colts keep it close at the NRG Stadium and pull off the cover.

NFL Picks: Colts +4 (-110) with

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-7-0) vs Atlanta Falcons (3-7-0)

Sunday, November 24, 2019, 1:00 PM EST

Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta. TV Broadcast FOX

So, the Falcons finally decide to make an appearance in 2019. And boy, do they make the entrance following a week 9 bye! Beating the Saints at the Superdome was not what many expected. Then they go and back it up with a win over Carolina on the road. Go figure.

One could argue, the Falcons are the hottest team in the NFL in the last few weeks, winning two on the trot and – get this – outscoring opponents by 55 to 12 points. What’s more, they covered both games with plenty to spare – an average of +30-point differential versus the point spread.

If this recent trend –and stellar defense – is for real, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can well be concerned with their turnover-prone quarterback Jameis Winston. The Bucs are 2-8-0 ATS on the season, which is a league-worst.

More importantly, if the Falcons can continue on their rich vein of form, they should be able to cover the 4-point spread that is currently trading at the sports betting exchange handily.

NFL Picks: Falcons -4 (-109) with

Denver Broncos (3-7-0) vs Buffalo Bills (7-3-0)

Sunday, November 24, 2019, 1:00 PM EST

New Era Field, Buffalo. TV Broadcast: CBS

Brandon Allen and the Broncos came close to masterminding the upset over the Minnesota Vikings in week 11, at the U.S. Bank Stadium no less. Indeed, the Broncos reeled off 20 unanswered points in the first half to take an impressive lead into half time. However, the Vikings came back in the second half to clinch the nail-biting 27-23 win.

Two games are a small cross-section by any standard, but in those two games Allen led the Broncos to the upset over the Browns at Mile High and almost backed it up in Minnesota. The upshot of which is the Broncos are 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS with their backup quarterback. On the strength of those two games, however, there is upset potential for week 12 NFL picks here.

There’s been much chatter about the Bills being a product of schedule bias, capitalizing on lesser opponents. The Broncos may be 3-7 SU but they’re better than their record would suggest. This game isn’t the gimmick the NFL odds would have it, so don’t be surprised if Brandon Allen (no relation to Josh Allen) takes the Broncos in for a backdoor cover, if not the total upset that would send seismic shockwaves through NFL betting circles.

NFL Picks: Broncos +5 (-105) with

New York Giants (2-8-0) vs Chicago Bears (4-6-0)

Sunday, November 24, 2019, 1:00 PM EST

Soldier Field, Chicago TV Broadcast: FOX

Mitch Trubisky’s struggles have taken the Chicago Bears on a negative trajectory in 2019. They’ve lost five of their last six games, including last week’s highly anticipated clash with the Los Angeles Rams. Now, he’s hurt as well.

Whether Trubisky starts or not remains up in the air. Chase Daniel will be the starter in the event Trubisky is “benched’ again. In spite of all these question marks on top of the lackluster form, the Bears are tipped anywhere from -6 to -6.5 on the NFL odds board for their week 12 clash with the NY Giants. At one point, the NFL line flirted with a touchdown advantage.

Somehow, the Bears favored by that many points is unnerving. Yes, they have home advantage, a solid defense and the opponent is suspect behind a 2-8 SU mark. But the Giants can fancy their chances here, surely. Let’s not forget, Daniel Jones threw for 4TDs and over 308 yards in a 34-27 loss to the Jets two weeks ago.

This is in no way a sure bet, but the Giants have the added advantage of a bye week going into this clash. The Bears, meanwhile, are still coming to terms with the fact that their season is likely over and there will be no playoff glory. Perfect let down spot to make this point spread exploitable.

NFL Picks: Giants +6.5 (-105) with

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5-0) vs Cincinnati Bengals (0-10-0)

Sunday, November 24, 2019, 1:00 PM EST

Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati. TV Broadcast: CBS

This is a must-win game for the Pittsburgh Steelers after the debacle in the previous round saw the Steelers fall to 5-5 SU on the season. Nevertheless, Mike Tomlin’s side is still second in the AFC North standings and sat on the fringe of the AFC playoff frame but it’s crunch time.

The Bengals earned the dubious honor of becoming the first team to be eliminated this season. At a woeful 0-10 SU record, the writing was on the wall a long time ago. Still, nice to know it’s official. Having said that, Ryan Finley had a much better outing last week in Oakland despite Cincy’s 17-10 loss. The rookie is trying.

Indeed, the score was closer than the NFL odds had it as the Bengals covered the +13-point spread at closing doors. A feat that appears to be going down well with the public as they’ve bet down the Bengals for their hot date with the Steelers at Paul Brown Stadium, moving the NFL line from an opening 7.5 points to 6.5.

Now, let’s not rush to shade the Bengals for week 12 NFL picks just yet. Let’s consider who the opponent was last week. The Oakland Raiders. A side that boasts one of the most suspect defenses in the league and that hasn’t overpowered any team (good or bad) despite going above .500.

Taking a step back so, maybe one could argue the Bengals aren’t that good (as good as last week’s cover was) and the Raiders are just that bad actually. The Steelers defense is no slouch. The Steelers crushed the Bengals earlier this season and after last week this rematch couldn’t have come at a better time.

NFL Picks: Steelers – 6 (-110) with

Miami Dolphins (2-8-0) vs Cleveland Browns (4-6-0)

Sunday, November 24, 2019, 1:00 PM EST

FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland. TV Broadcast: FOX

A two-game winning streak and the Cleveland Browns bandwagon’s engine is revving up again. So much so, the Browns motor into week 12 as the staggering home chalk against the Miami Dolphins, giving a truckload of points to Ryan Fitzpatrick and Co. to play with. As it is, the Browns are laying anywhere for -10 to -11 points, depending on your choice sportsbook.

This is a bit of a tricky one for week 12 NFL picks. Wins over the Bills and Steelers leave much to be desired. To begin with, the Browns were fortunate to beat the Bills when Hauschka botched a game-tying field goal attempt. And the win over the Steelers… well, it was many things but good football.

The Dolphins aren’t a great team or even a good team but they’re not the doormat they once were thought to be. Brian Flores’ Fins won two of their last three games (same as the Browns) and covered five of their last six games. Their five-game cover streak was the longest active cover streak going into week 11. Overall, the Dolphins are 5-5 ATS this season and 3-1 ATS on the road. The Browns are merely 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS at home.

To all intents and purposes, it’s hard to feel confident about either of these teams for week 12 NFL picks but with a point spread this large there is potential exploitable value with the Dolphins. It’s a longshot though.

NFL Picks: Dolphins +11 (-110) with

Carolina Panthers (5-5-0) vs New Orleans Saints (8-2-0)

Sunday, November 24, 2019, 1:00 PM EST

Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans. TV Broadcast: CBS

New Orleans Saints look to have righted the ship after a stunning loss to the Falcons in week 10. They decimated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in a 34-17 win to improve to an 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS record for the season.

At the Superdome, the Saints sport a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS record with a 3.2 winning margin on average. Widely held as the NFC standard in 2019, it’s no surprise the Saints enter week 12’s clash as the massive home faves over the Carolina Panthers, anywhere from -9-5 to 10 points depending on your choice sportsbook.

What’s at stake in this game is twofold. For the Saints, it’s potentially a division-deciding game. A win over the Panthers would lift the Saints to a 9-2 SU mark and all but seal the deal. A win for the Panthers would keep hope alive for another week.

There’s clearly a wide selection of point spreads for this game to bet on so how NFL bettors slice this matchup will decide where to place a bet. Panthers plus the points are tempting for week 12 NFL picks. There’s a lot to recommend the Panthers, who were great in Kyle Allen’s first few starts on the season.

Reality though might have caught up with the undrafted rookie. The Panthers have lost two in a row and Allen has 9 interceptions in the last four games (5 in the last 2). He’s in unchartered territory. Leading a team through adversity is something he’s never done at this level. Expecting him to accomplish the feat at the expense of Drew Brees at the Superdome may be a stretch.

Brees has been there and done that. He’s the consummate pro and a veteran that has weathered many a storm in New Orleans. This is when experience could be deciding towards a big win.

NFL Picks: Saints – 9.5 (-105) with

Oakland Raiders (6-4-0) vs New York Jets (3-7-0)

Sunday, November 24, 2019, 1:00 PM EST

MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. TV Broadcast: CBS

The Raiders are coming off a 17-10 win over the Bengals that extends their winning form to three straight and lifts Jon Gruden’s side to 6-4 SU in the AFC West, with a realistic shot at giving Kansas City Chiefs a run for its money for the AFC West title.

However, the only reason the Raiders are in this position is because Mahomes suffered an injury early in the season (ironically, he first tweaked his ankle in Oakland) and the Chiefs suffered as a result.

Make no mistake, their suddenly promising season is a result of events going in their favor and not of their own making.

It’s hard to buy what the Raiders are selling just yet. And now that the pressure is on as the season enters the homestretch, their mettle will be revealed. On paper, their schedule is favorable. Jets look to be beatable. However, nothing is a given. The Jets may not be in the fight for a postseason berth that shouldn’t discount their upset potential.

The Jets are at home where they beat the Cowboys earlier this season. They’re enjoying a two-game winning streak going into week 12 and with nothing to lose they may well fancy their chances to send seismic shockwaves through NFL betting markets.

NFL Picks: Jets +3 (-110) with

Seattle Seahawks (8-2-0) vs Philadelphia Eagles (5-5-0)

Sunday, November 24, 2019, 1:00 PM EST

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia. TV Broadcast: FOX

The NFL line for this game has raised quite a few eyebrows, with most NFL betting experts asking the same question: how is it possible that the Eagles can maintain a favorable edge over the Seahawks in betting estimation. How is it feasible that the Eagles are favored at all, even if they’re giving up just a few points on the NFL odds board?

By the stats, the two teams are trending in opposite directions. The Seahawks are cruising on the highway to the postseason while the Eagles are trundling along laboriously on a bumpy road that could be leading towards a dead end.

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks went into the bye week riding the euphoria of their thrilling win over the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium, handing their divisional foes their first loss of the season. It was a statement-making win. A lot is being made about what the Seahawks lack, but not enough is being said about what they have in Russell Wilson – proven champion that is an X-factor on the field.

Carson Wentz hasn’t ever accomplished anything save for one season in which he enjoyed a stellar start before succumbing to injury. When the pressure is on, he’s crumbled lately. The 17-10 loss to the Patriots was case-and-point. The game against the Seahawks is a must-win game for the Eagles. That equals pressure.

If the game is on the line with seconds on the clock left, which quarterback would you trust? Russell Wilson, right. As such, Seahawks plus the points have to be the smart NFL pick, surely.

NFL Picks: Seattle +2 (-112) with

Detroit Lions (3-6-1) vs Washington Redskins (1-9-0)

Sunday, November 24, 2019, 1:00 PM EST

FedEx Field, Landover TV. Broadcast: FOX

The Washington Redskins are a woeful 1-9 SU going into week 12. They’re riding a two-game losing streak under Haskins at centre. And their most recent loss to the Jets prompted Bill Callahan to apologize to fans. If that’s not all, Haskins doesn’t appear to have the respect of his teammates.

In a culture that is bogged down by disinterest and disrespect and with players mentally checking out of what is clearly a lost cause, there’s no way betting on the Redskins is a smart move. Not now, Not for the foreseeable.

The Lions have their own issues but a lack of respect or effort is not something one can accuse Matt Patricia’s lads of. In the 35-27 loss to the Cowboys, the Lions showed fight and resilience all the while Jeff Driskel was at centre.

It may be small consolation for the 3-6-1 SU Lions, but this is a game they should not only win but cover handily. Shade the Lions for Week 12 NFL picks in the nation’s capital.

NFL Picks: Lions -3.5 (+100) with

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6-0) vs Tennessee Titans (5-5-0)

Sunday, November 24, 2019, 4:05 PM EST

Nissan Stadium, Nashville. TV Broadcast: CBS

Can Foles be the savior in Jacksonville? Overcome what is a suddenly a porous Jaguars defense to keep Jacksonville relevant?

Foles’s return to the lineup didn’t go to plan but it wasn’t all down to him. He started brightly only for the Jaguars defense to let him down. The run defense allowed the Colts to trot up 264 yards in last week’s rather lopsided 33-13 loss.

That aspect alone doesn’t bode well for a matchup against a well-rested Titans side that is coming off a bye week after upsetting the Chiefs.

Ryan Tannehill has been adequate as a game manager since he replaced Marcus Mariota, taking his second lease on NFL life by the bull’s horns and running with it. Well, the Titans are built to run the ball, after all.

Tennessee opened as the field goal favorites for this game and the NFL line hasn’t moved off the key number, save for bookmakers adjusting the juice as money pours in. Everything about this game suggests it’s a right tossup. Both the Jags and Titans must-win to keep hope alive for another week.

It’s easy to see the Titans win at home and continue marching forward. It’s also reasonable to expect Foles to have a much better outing in his second start in as many weeks and give the Titans a run for their money. Push comes to shove, the Jaguars could keep this game close, if not pull off the upset.

NFL Picks: Jaguars +3 (+109) with

Dallas Cowboys (6-3-0) vs New England Patriots (9-1-0)

Sunday, November 24, 2019, 4:25 PM EST

Gillette Stadium, Foxboro. TV Broadcast: FOX

Can Dallas Cowboys pull off the upset over the New England Patriots at the Foxboro? It seems, quite a few NFL betting experts are banking on just that even though betting against Bill Belichick is a bad idea.

It seems there’s a lot of chatter about the Patriots’ offense not being up to scratch. And in the light of Dak Prescott’s 400-passing yards and 4 TD effort to beat the Lions in the same week that has some very worried. But let’s rewind here for a second. Take a step back.

The Eagles defense is no slouch so the Patriots winning ugly in a 17-10 victory should be taken into the context of the matchup. The important bit, the Patriots are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS overall.

The fact that Prescott and the Cowboys needed to go to all that effort to beat the 3-6-1 SU Lions is more of a worry. It’s symptomatic of Dallas’ season and a reason why they can’t beat the better teams; this penchant to allow big plays puts Prescott under the cosh.

Facing lesser teams, Prescott has had success bailing out Dallas. He won’t be able to do so against the Patriots defense though. By that same token, Brady could have one of his best offensive days against a Cowboys side that allows big plays repeatedly.

NFL Picks: Patriots -6 (-105) with

Green Bay Packers (8-2-0) vs San Francisco 49ers (9-1-0)

Sunday, November 24, 2019 – 08:20 PM EST

Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara. TV Broadcast: NBC

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Packers have a tall order on the road when they take on the high-flying San Francisco 49ers. The Packers trail the Niners in the NFC standings and what happens in this game could have far-reaching consequences for the playoffs. Appropriately, the NFL betting market is tight.

The Packers are coming off a bye week. They’re 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS on the season, which includes a 4.5-point winning margin on average. They’ve covered four of their last five games and they’re 3-1 ATS with a 2.2 winning margin on average.

The Niners bounced back from a heartbreaking loss to the Seahawks in week 10 with Garoppolo having a standout game for the red and gold. He proved that when push comes to shove he can lift the Niners to victory with the passing game.

Both these teams have shown a winning attitude in 2019 that is undeniable. It’s hard to go against one or the other for week 12 NFL picks. San Francisco has home advantage and has a credible shot to come through for its backers at home. But the Packers, who have the pedigree and experience down the stretch with Rodgers, can make a fist of it. If not win outright, then to keep this game close as the +3 road underdogs in point spread betting.

NFL Picks: Packers +3 (+105) with

Baltimore Ravens (8-2-0) vs Los Angeles Rams (6-4-0)

Monday, November 25, 2019 – 08:15 PM EST

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles. TV Broadcast: ESPN

The Ravens are amongst the best in the AFC. They have momentum, confidence, swag and more, all of which looms ominously for the Rams. How the Ravens are trading under a field goal for week 12 NFL picks, therefore, is inexplicable.

Sean McVay’s side is coming off a win over the Bears to improve to 6-4 SU on the season, but the Rams leave much to be desired. They’re third in the NFC West and in real danger of giving the playoffs a skip this season.

From the first 10 games, it’s difficult to feel confident about Los Angeles chances. Losses to the Bucs and Steelers are just a couple of the headscratchers that have taken the shine off of Sean McVay’s side.

Can Jared Goff go toe-to-toe with the Ravens offense? How will Goff stand up to a stout Ravens defense? Put it another way, how can anyone bet against Lamar Jackson? It doesn’t bear thinking about. This could be another lopsided and forgettable game in what is fast becoming McVay’s worst season.

NFL Picks: Ravens -3 (-107) with

Bye Week: Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings and Arizona Cardinals

Read Our Top 5 NFL Picks for Week 12