We cover the entire NFL betting slate for week 11, serving up an in-depth analysis of four choice games as well free ATS NFL picks for all 14 games.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 29, 2020 – 12:15 PM ET at Heinz Field
Regression is frankly not so uncommon when the weight of expectation is overwhelmingly burdensome, and there is no greater expectation that can be placed on a team than to be dubbed a legitimate top Super Bowl contender. That was the case for the Baltimore Ravens at the start of this season, thanks to a stellar 2019 campaign that was capped with a 14-2-0 SU record and Lamar Jackson unanimously clinching the regular season MVP award.
Life comes at you fast. NFL-wide, the Ravens were not only expected to pick up from where they left off, but to make great strides by going all the way to championship glory. Fast forward to week 12: the Ravens are sat pretty in third place in the AFC North after their latest setback against a quality opponent. The Ravens fell short in their revenge match against the Titans last Sunday, losing 30-24 in overtime.
Granted it was a close game, needing overtime for the Titans to clinch the victory, but the Ravens had several opportunities to close the game successfully in the fourth quarter. In failing to do so, legitimate questions are being asked whether too much is being expected of the Ravens, and of Jackson, specifically.
Pressure is a privilege, but not all players can be clutch in the big moments – a la Patrick Mahomes for instance. The Chiefs quarterback has shown time and time again over the course of his fledgling career that he can be trusted to carry a team on his back to victory, even under the most challenging circumstances. Why, he did just that only last Sunday against the Raiders.
If Mahomes represents the yardstick by which young, up-and-coming quarterbacks are to be held against, then Lamar Jackson has his work cut out to close the gap. If the playoffs were to start this weekend, the Ravens would be sitting out thanks to a modest 6-4-0 SU mark that has them third in the AFC North standings. A run of form that includes a 4-6-0 ATS mark with a 7.3 margin of victory on average. To look at those stats closely is to find only one win against a team that sits above .500 at this vantage point: a 38-6 win over the Cleveland Browns that came way back in week 1 when the playing field was level.
The last time the Steelers and Ravens faced off this season, the former won 28-24 at M&T Bank Stadium. After which, head coach Mike Tomlin shared some insight on Jackson, saying “We respect him, but we do not fear him.”
All things considered, it’s no surprise that this matchup doesn’t stack up favourably for the Ravens across various top betting sites. Moreover, with reports of several Baltimore players testing positive for Covid-19, it’s looking like it might be too big of an ask for Jackson and the Ravens to mastermind the upset at Heinz Field. As such, the choice NFL pick here is to back the Steelers to come through with the win and cover.
NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 29, 2020 - 1:00 PM ET at Bills Stadium
The Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills collide in an intriguing AFC contest on Sunday, one that has NFL bettors split down the middle for week 12 NFL picks, despite the odds tipping the game convincingly in favor of the hosts.
The Bills are coming off a perfectly timed bye week, right on the heels of a stunning “Hail Murray” that denied Buffalo what looked to be an almost certain DUB in week 10’s clash with the Arizona Cardinals. Josh Allen was terrific in that game, and 99.9% of the time, Allen’s stellar touchdown-scoring drive that lifted the Bills to a 30-26 lead with less than a minute left on the clock would have done the trick. Alas, Allen and the Bills, along with viewers across the nation, could only sit back and watch in mesmerised fascination as Kyler Murray hurled a a last-gasp, 46-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass into D’Andre Hopkins’ expectant arms…
Speaking of terrific quarterbacking, rookie Justin Herbert has been absolutely standout in his nine starts this season, despite the Chargers sporting a rather subpar 3-7-0 SU mark. Statistically, Herbert has been lighting up the stats sheet (25TDs to 6 INTs), giving fans and neutrals alike a glimpse of his potential upside in the next few years. Most recently, he balled out for 366 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-28 win over the NY Jets.
The Chargers are a talented team that has yet to put forward the results to back up the talent contained within, and the Bills are a solid team with the results to back up their credentials in 2020. The Chargers have only won two games under Herbert and none on the road, and yet this game sets up most intriguingly in point spread betting markets. The Chargers are 5-5-0 ATS on the season, which includes a
1.3 losing margin on average. The Bills are 5-5-0 ATS on the season, underscored by a 0.7 winning margin on average. To put it simply, you can’t cut the margins finer for NFL picks. Thus, the Chargers emerge as the value play to pull off the cover, if not the upset over the Bills.
NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 29, 2020 - 1:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis Colts were coasting under the radar for the better part of the 2020 NFL season. NFL observers and pundits alike were unwilling to buy-in with the Colts right out of the gates. However, after notching recent wins over the Titans and Packers, Indianapolis’ stock is steadily rising in futures betting markets across various top betting sites. Most recently, the Colts edged the Packers 34-31 in overtime – with a little bit of help from an offensive turnover that set up the Colts favorably to close out the game on a field-goal.
Buoyed by a pivotal overtime win at the expense of the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday, the Tennessee Titans get set to take on the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, all the while mindful of the danger of a potential series sweep by the hosts in week 12. The Colts served up the upset at Nissan Stadium a couple of weeks ago when they beat the Titans 34-17 – a game that went against expectations at the time, which had this AFC South clash nestled delicately on a nominal 1-point spread on the odds board.
Frankly, the final score in the first meeting between these top two AFC South rivals is somewhat misleading because the game was a lot closer. Had the Titans’ punter not had an awful day – two botched punts resulting in touchdowns – who’s to say how this game would have resulted.
As it stands, the Titans and Colts are locked-in at the top of the AFC South standings with a 7-3-0 SU mark, albeit the Colts have the advantage in the race for the title right now, thanks to a 1-0 SU head-to-head mark. On the strength of that advantage, along with home advantage, the Colts appear to enter the rematch with the Titans installed as the 4-point home chalk. However, the Titans may well prove to be the value play here for NFL picks, if only to give the Colts a right run for their money.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 29, 2020 - 8:20 PM ET at Lambeau Field
The Green Bay Packers fritted away a 14-point halftime lead to settle on a loss in overtime to the Colts last Sunday, a game that was marred by key turnovers that went against Aaron Rodgers and Co. Despite the disappointing result though, Aaron Rodgers had a brilliant first-half, and he was clutch late in the second-half while leading the Packers on a game-tying drive that sent it into overtime.
The Chicago Bears, meanwhile, are in the midst of an existential crisis with both choice starting quarterbacks presenting fitness concerns ahead of week 12’s NFC North showdown. Most recently, the Beas lost to the Vikings 19-13 – their fourth straight loss as Nick Foles was carted off the field with a suspected hip/leg injury. Foles is day-to-day according to injury reports this week.
Thus, with a quarterback dilemma on his hands, Matt Nagy is holding his cards close to his chest. Avoiding making an announcement about which quarterback will get the start on Sunday against the Packers (Mitch Trubisky has been nursing a shoulder injury for the last three weeks or so, which makes him doubtful too). What this uncertainty could mean is that the Bears will be fielding a third-string quarterback against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (yikes!).
The Chicago Bears defense is solid, but without a reliable quarterback at the helm and an efficient offense taking the pressure off of the defense, it’s unlikely that Chicago’s stop-unit will be able to contain Rodgers for the better part of all four quarters. Therefore, all things considered, shading the Packers seems to be the best bet for week 12 NFL picks, in a game that could turn into a surprising blowout.
All the Rest of Week 12 Games - Quick-Fire NFL ATS Picks
Thanksgiving Thursday Triple-Header
Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lions
Thursday, November 26, 2020 - 12:30 PM ET at Ford Field
Washington Football Team vs. Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, November 26, 2020 - 4:30 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, November 29, 2020 - 1:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
New York Giants vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 29, 2020 - 1:00 PM ET at Paul Brown Stadium
NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)
Carolina Panthers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, November 29, 2020 - 1:00 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
NFL Pick: Panthers +4.5 (-110) with BetOnline
Arizona Cardinals vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, November 29, 2020 - 1:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Sunday, November 29, 2020 - 1:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 29, 2020 - 1:00 PM ET at TIAA Bank Field
New Orleans Saints vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, November 29, 2020 - 4:05 PM ET at Empower Field at Mile High
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, November 29, 2020 - 4:05 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, November 29, 2020 - 4:25 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Monday, November 30, 2020 - 8:15 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field