NFL Week 11: Teaser Picks

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, November 14, 2013 8:28 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 14, 2013 8:28 PM UTC

After a few weeks off to start on the NBA, I am back for Week 11 with my two-team, six-point teasers. All of these have great value, and all three of them payout as a straight  -110 wager. 

Bengals & Lions

The NFL odds have the Bengals right under a touchdown favorite this week at home against the Browns, and teasing them down to a pick em’ seems like solid value. Even though Andy Dalton has fallen off of his hot streak of a few weeks ago, this offense is still good enough to beat the Browns. This is a huge game for the Bengals, because after their two straight losses, they are only 1 ½ games up on both the Browns and Ravens for the division lead. However I see Cincinnati getting the win here, which I why they are the first leg to my first teaser.

The Lions have a real shot at winning the NFC North with both Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler banged up, and this week they head into Pittsburgh as -1 favorites in the NFL odds. While I will be crossing over zero with this NFL pick, I think teasing the Lions up to +5 is great value. Even though they have underperformed so far this season, the Lions’ pass rush should have plenty of opportunities at pressuring Ben Roethlisberger in this game, and so far this season, the Lions’ offense has been very good. I think these two teams are an excellent teaser pair this week.

NFL Pick: 2-team teaser, Bengals PK & Lions +5

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Jaguars and Raiders

This one is a bit more of a stretch, but as we get deeper into the latter half of the season, defenses have started to play much better, and I think we will see that this Sunday. The Jags are +7 home underdogs this week against the Cardinals, and I think teasing them to +13 is great value. The Cardinals traveling across the country is not going to help, and it’s not like the Cardinals have been playing great anyway. I doubt they have enough to beat the Jags at home by more than single digits.

The Raiders are on the road but they too are +7 ½ underdogs in the NFL odds, as they head into Houston. The Texans may be a bit overvalued here, but the Raiders have not been playing well at all over the last two weeks. They have given up 73 points over the last two weeks, but against Houston, I think their defense will come to play. The Texans will have virtually no running game, and I think that is going to keep this one respectable.

NFL Pick: 2-team teaser, Jaguars +13 & Raiders +13 ½

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Saints and Chiefs

I am in love with the Saints this week as -3 favorites, so making them a +3 underdog in a teaser is even better. I don’t buy into the 49ers being able to come in and win this game. San Francisco is 2-6 SU in their last eight games against the Saints, they are only 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games against the Saints, and 1-4 SU in their last five trips to New Orleans. I see the Saints’ defense playing well, and the offense to blow up once again.

The Chiefs have the toughest matchup of the week, as they head into Denver, but it seems as if they are undervalued at +9 ½, which means their teaser price of +15 ½ should almost certainly have value. I can’t see a way the Chiefs’ defense gives up a huge game here. They will get pressure on Peyton Manning, while the Chiefs’ offense should run the ball as much as possible to keep Manning off the field. If they do that, they should be great value at +15 ½ in our third teaser.

NFL Pick: 2-team teaser, Saints +3 & Chiefs +15 ½ 

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